TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
OGof OG, Grind Back
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$403,461
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$452,033

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $403,461 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 286 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed OG62c62,165$38,597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,567.781,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe59f…0d08backed Grind Back21c28,226$5,962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,961.9621155.5%117 W · 94 L+17.3wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+6.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed Grind Back36c22,222$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,999.915951.6%82 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3413…8ff2backed Grind Back33c20,000$6,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,599.9747646.4%221 W · 255 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Grind Back28c20,000$5,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,549.7789741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Grind Back21c19,430$4,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,164.061,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa41c…fadebacked Grind Back34c10,000$3,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,399.9910641.5%44 W · 62 L-0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed OG60c9,000$5,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,631.8453652.6%282 W · 254 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Grind Back43c8,347$3,563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,563.4371454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xe52c…01f4backed Grind Back36c8,121$2,937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,936.683033.3%10 W · 20 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-15.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked OG64c7,450$4,782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,668.5580256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked OG75c7,304$5,456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,848.141,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4aec…4ce9backed OG78c7,303$5,715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,588.0530667.3%206 W · 100 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed OG68c6,586$4,448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,137.9533041.8%138 W · 192 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Grind Back32c6,560$2,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,072.395342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5038…6236backed Grind Back36c5,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80026540.8%108 W · 157 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-16.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xea1a…ac77backed Grind Back41c4,699$1,904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,903.621030%3 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-54.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x60dd…40e5backed OG65c4,437$2,864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,573.0133453%177 W · 157 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdf3…1bb5backed Grind Back38c3,755$1,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,429.3128341%116 W · 167 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a86…cc01backed Grind Back37c3,743$1,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,372.0510051%51 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf991…3965backed OG64c3,316$2,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,193.8831248.4%151 W · 161 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf27…026fbacked OG66c3,104$2,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,060.5265863.1%415 W · 243 L+17.5wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Grind Back37c2,844$1,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,058.861,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x070f…ed83backed Grind Back22c2,700$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595.4626247.7%125 W · 137 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3de…6fe8backed OG80c2,550$2,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.710075%75 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x08cf…22b9backed OG79c2,450$1,928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.1853758.8%316 W · 221 L+0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ad9…0eaebacked Grind Back37c2,384$883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$882.589344.1%41 W · 52 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Grind Back34c2,285$771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$770.811,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2fbc…f944backed OG78c2,256$1,754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.5520767.1%139 W · 68 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9679…9315backed OG55c2,179$1,204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$975.2516058.8%94 W · 66 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc746…3943backed OG72c2,162$1,559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.826440.6%26 W · 38 L-5.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-22.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed Grind Back33c2,000$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66013635.3%48 W · 88 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b4a…3b84backed Grind Back46c1,914$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$879.723053.3%16 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+56.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed OG66c1,854$1,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.2196557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x40db…ca8cbacked Grind Back63c1,691$1,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,065.0554058.9%318 W · 222 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Grind Back12c1,650$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.4965625.6%168 W · 488 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked OG64c1,575$1,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56725549%125 W · 130 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x73f4…158ebacked OG66c1,568$1,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533.1323561.7%145 W · 90 L+19.9wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd8b5…54c4backed Grind Back36c1,529$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55029240.8%119 W · 173 L+0.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6eac…ed37backed Grind Back41c1,527$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.9457449%281 W · 293 L+33.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8430…3961backed OG78c1,507$1,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.4930356.4%171 W · 132 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x703b…e371backed Grind Back22c1,500$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.551544.9%231 W · 284 L+40.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+3.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2deb…2b13backed OG40c1,493$602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$891.4111551.3%59 W · 56 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed OG67c1,435$969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.5854246.7%253 W · 289 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf490…63afbacked Grind Back43c1,387$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.881323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.16per pick39cpaid-56.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked OG66c1,368$905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.2966947.1%315 W · 354 L-10.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x473f…9892backed Grind Back22c1,344$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.7950053%265 W · 235 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Grind Back34c1,320$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.5688539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed Grind Back33c1,250$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.5643738.4%168 W · 269 L-1.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a3f…6712backed Grind Back3c1,235$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4110741.1%44 W · 63 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Grind Back35c1,177$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.5893546.4%434 W · 501 L-15.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked Grind Back34c1,176$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40026843.7%117 W · 151 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Grind Back35c1,151$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.51,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0758…9532backed OG49c1,140$559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581.418437.5%69 W · 115 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed Grind Back39c1,139$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.8419249%94 W · 98 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a01…c89ebacked OG72c1,108$793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.0828251.8%146 W · 136 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b57…de6bbacked Grind Back5c1,100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5519338.9%75 W · 118 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20a9…18a3backed OG64c1,085$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.32948.3%14 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked OG67c1,049$699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.3961456%344 W · 270 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Grind Back37c1,000$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37089440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1413…184abacked OG71c1,000$712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.57241.7%30 W · 42 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb238…4961backed Grind Back37c992.47$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.6812548.8%61 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Grind Back16c981.98$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.2132441.7%135 W · 189 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93bd…bbc5backed OG73c974.62$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.753764.4%346 W · 191 L+26.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3752…2f08backed Grind Back42c953.91$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.934442.2%145 W · 199 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Grind Back36c950$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.51,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6955…867abacked OG63c937.66$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.932171.4%15 W · 6 L+3.6wins+0.17per pick55cpaid+16.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc925…6d24backed Grind Back23c931.02$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.4541632.7%136 W · 280 L-37.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-41.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc214…105dbacked Grind Back61c890.55$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.2248843.6%213 W · 275 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked Grind Back34c880.71$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.5850850.8%258 W · 250 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x958c…a328backed OG50c858$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42928347%133 W · 150 L+10.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x41a0…87e7backed OG62c848.78$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.5210933%36 W · 73 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4a77…e59dbacked Grind Back8c832.51$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.4722031.8%70 W · 150 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-31.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Grind Back12c788$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.564547.8%308 W · 337 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed OG62c781.26$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.242552%13 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed Grind Back2c750$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158035%28 W · 52 L+5.2wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+1.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x324c…93d9backed Grind Back2c750$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151040%0 W · 104 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Grind Back35c749.99$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26056852.5%298 W · 270 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed OG54c740.74$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.741,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x469f…3d4fbacked OG66c727.96$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.1423546.8%110 W · 125 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x961a…aa6abacked OG48c718.67$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.969057.8%52 W · 38 L+7.8wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+15.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed OG64c715.26$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.9960251.2%308 W · 294 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed OG64c702.02$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.5846451.5%239 W · 225 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b7e…ef88backed Grind Back29c694.56$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2008425%21 W · 63 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-37.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed OG65c692.3$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.317757.6%102 W · 75 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x43dc…86e1backed Grind Back44c685.02$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30024244.6%108 W · 134 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e01…b0b5backed Grind Back22c673.55$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.9520642.7%88 W · 118 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x880d…39bcbacked OG78c660.83$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.8532756.9%186 W · 141 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9705…7442backed Grind Back38c650$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2463528.6%10 W · 25 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Grind Back36c626.97$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.4499844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05a7…42e6backed Grind Back33c621$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.9341056.8%233 W · 177 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x952a…bdc8backed OG65c604.07$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.018469%58 W · 26 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6f0…6da2backed Grind Back35c603.57$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.251838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-37.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf876…1deebacked OG54c596.3$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.31952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf913…c2f5backed Grind Back16c590$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.29352.7%49 W · 44 L+8.3wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+8.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9f42…1f72backed OG71c566.97$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.1631865.1%207 W · 111 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f31…a362backed Grind Back46c563.76$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.0416558.2%96 W · 69 L-0.2wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked OG66c557.14$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.4755251.6%285 W · 267 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked Grind Back34c552.38$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.871,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5e4…2c05backed Grind Back72c516.97$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37011777.8%91 W · 26 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick72cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.