TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
OGof OG, Grind Back
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$212,538
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$227,645

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $212,538 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 192 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed OG58c76,974$44,729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,245.281,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe59f…0d08backed Grind Back44c22,884$10,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,083.4621155.5%117 W · 94 L+17.3wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+6.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed Grind Back38c22,222$8,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,444.3515951.6%82 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Grind Back47c10,141$4,746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,746.1856955.5%316 W · 253 L+22.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Grind Back52c4,750$2,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,449.780056%448 W · 352 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed OG54c4,638$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,137.5553652.6%282 W · 254 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x540d…c8f9backed Grind Back47c4,280$2,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,003.3638855.2%214 W · 174 L+29.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Grind Back48c4,056$1,939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,938.8136248.6%176 W · 186 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13b8…d1afbacked Grind Back50c4,000$2,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,009.981346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked OG53c3,625$1,921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,703.7389341.5%371 W · 522 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked OG50c2,886$1,443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,44394442.3%399 W · 545 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Grind Back36c2,766$984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98471454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x703b…e371backed Grind Back8c2,750$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21551544.9%231 W · 284 L+40.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+3.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x52f9…1fb2backed Grind Back37c2,671$981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9813627.8%10 W · 26 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf991…3965backed Grind Back40c2,405$962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$962.1231248.4%151 W · 161 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed OG62c2,179$1,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$827.192,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdf3…1bb5backed Grind Back39c2,159$844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$844.2928341%116 W · 167 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Grind Back46c2,022$936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$935.991,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x27ea…863dbacked Grind Back13c2,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2503342.4%14 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed Grind Back25c2,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50043538.6%168 W · 267 L-1.4wins0.00per pick39cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20a9…18a3backed OG60c1,670$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$670.112948.3%14 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6eac…ed37backed OG53c1,620$854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$766.556949%279 W · 290 L+34.0wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Grind Back47c1,598$751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751.145139.2%177 W · 274 L+0.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4aec…4ce9backed Grind Back40c1,463$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.3330667.3%206 W · 100 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Grind Back28c1,441$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.6150353.9%271 W · 232 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Grind Back37c1,347$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.5789440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Grind Back33c1,346$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.188539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0f0…26edbacked OG63c1,327$833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494.1733867.8%229 W · 109 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked OG56c1,309$733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.941,27045.1%573 W · 697 L-10.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Grind Back35c1,269$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.291,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdf27…026fbacked Grind Back46c1,250$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.9965863.1%415 W · 243 L+17.5wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8b5…54c4backed Grind Back45c1,216$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55029240.8%119 W · 173 L+0.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5f6…38e8backed Grind Back5c1,118$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523243.1%10 W · 314 L-11.0wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-56.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x08b8…e7dabacked Grind Back45c1,100$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49530854.9%169 W · 139 L+10.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0273…f081backed Grind Back43c1,078$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.5415539.4%61 W · 94 L+0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5b1…1b71backed Grind Back46c1,062$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.656741.8%28 W · 39 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-17.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc214…105dbacked OG56c1,012$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.0448843.6%213 W · 275 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xefdd…1e8abacked OG53c1,000$533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.4215050%75 W · 75 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4a4…a73ebacked OG61c1,000$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3902516%4 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick9cpaid+33.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb726…4d2bbacked OG60c999.97$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.995253.8%28 W · 24 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+16.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa14c…23a1backed Grind Back50c957$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.1235151.3%180 W · 171 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9705…7442backed Grind Back37c910$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.53528.6%10 W · 25 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x22c7…3e23backed Grind Back35c900$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.54247.6%20 W · 22 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+14.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x952a…bdc8backed OG72c874.28$628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.778469%58 W · 26 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x41a0…87e7backed Grind Back36c849.99$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30410933%36 W · 73 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked Grind Back37c838.2$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.9753444.4%237 W · 297 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x240b…c32abacked OG61c813.87$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.875850%29 W · 29 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-3.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Grind Back36c799.97$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.991,24744.4%554 W · 693 L+17.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed OG52c775.09$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.091,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb24f…3432backed Grind Back13c750$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9513742.3%58 W · 79 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa533…acacbacked Grind Back48c726.46$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3506855.9%38 W · 30 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Grind Back4c699.98$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.56132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked OG71c678.22$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.9317647.2%83 W · 93 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Grind Back52c677.14$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.8361256%343 W · 269 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Grind Back41c661.88$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.771143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba5e…f9c4backed Grind Back47c638.3$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003951.3%20 W · 19 L+3.9wins+0.10per pick41cpaid+6.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ca6…6a20backed Grind Back46c610.87$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28117443.7%76 W · 98 L-11.2wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-13%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed Grind Back36c606.03$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.3913635.3%48 W · 88 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked OG55c600.01$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.0430844.8%138 W · 170 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked OG54c600.01$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.9622240.1%89 W · 133 L-14.9wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-24.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed OG56c600$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26462841.1%258 W · 370 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60dd…40e5backed OG74c585.67$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.9633453%177 W · 157 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked Grind Back10c578.5$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.851,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb877…4601backed Grind Back52c576$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.5241055.1%226 W · 184 L+39.6wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+19.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Grind Back49c557$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.2141050.2%206 W · 204 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed Grind Back45c555.78$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25023529.4%69 W · 166 L-21.5wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-26.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Grind Back35c550.6$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.061,69141.4%700 W · 991 L-40.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8342…6dc8backed Grind Back45c545.49$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.9947953.9%258 W · 221 L+11.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf34b…bcb3backed Grind Back45c541.27$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.4858156.6%329 W · 252 L+27.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed Grind Back41c529.11$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.6233041.8%138 W · 192 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3dd1…2812backed OG50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25011836.4%43 W · 75 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7020…d655backed Grind Back25c500$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12515150.3%76 W · 75 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed OG51c500$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.4235637.1%132 W · 224 L-9.6wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed Grind Back35c500$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17529043.4%126 W · 164 L-13.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked OG52c443.02$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.1926843.7%117 W · 151 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed Grind Back38c423.76$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.1154246.7%253 W · 289 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Grind Back41c423.43$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.291,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd8a5…26a1backed Grind Back20c421.01$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.0611154.1%60 W · 51 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-7.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3a86…cc01backed OG50c410$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20510051%51 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Grind Back34c397.41$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.631,44348.7%703 W · 740 L+29.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43dc…86e1backed Grind Back26c388.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10024244.6%108 W · 134 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb87…eb45backed Grind Back37c383.37$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.084226.2%11 W · 31 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-16.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8232…d12fbacked OG79c381.14$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.1428062.9%176 W · 104 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb238…4961backed OG52c379.98$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.5912548.8%61 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1568…c958backed Grind Back47c378.36$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.8317852.8%94 W · 84 L+0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x209e…8bb4backed Grind Back36c373.48$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.2280544.6%359 W · 446 L-25.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5874…64c3backed OG57c351.31$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.315933.9%20 W · 39 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41a5…75bbbacked OG62c348.97$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.6161249.7%304 W · 308 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x450e…4fddbacked Grind Back52c338.54$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.0411758.1%68 W · 49 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe99e…0084backed Grind Back49c320$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.687645.7%400 W · 476 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec83…e0a3backed OG56c317.69$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.69250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x473f…9892backed Grind Back49c306.12$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15049952.9%264 W · 235 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed OG53c305.23$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.0865647.3%310 W · 346 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc925…6d24backed OG71c302.69$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.5340933%135 W · 274 L-36.1wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-41.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xba23…cd7ebacked Grind Back50c302$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.054647.8%22 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8031…67e0backed Grind Back46c300$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13873743.6%321 W · 416 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a2b…9e83backed Grind Back5c300$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1418446.7%86 W · 98 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x788c…b217backed Grind Back37c300$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1111172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+22.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked OG58c300$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.8591756.5%518 W · 399 L+79.2wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed OG56c299.99$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.2996245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.