Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on May 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3149bc44108d745f258c985344e70ef696d0fe06ab817ec45c4f17761e3cbe1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,766
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,364
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,766 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 42c | 342.05$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.31 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 23c | 291.54$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.82 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 4c | 264.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 80c | 261$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.8 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 34c | 248.96$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.64 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 232$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.85 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…7e54backed No | 59c | 223.44$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 38c | 213.96$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.18 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 207.82$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.99 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f33…1ab8backed Yes | 12c | 161.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.02 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +4.6wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x258b…db84backed Yes | 54c | 150.96$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.29 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 21c | 149$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.51 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 145.53$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.05 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 14c | 108.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.83 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 73c | 102$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.04 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f8…bfa5backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 50c | 99.26$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.23 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 48c | 85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 62c | 82.54$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.31 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 56c | 77.72$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.47 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 54c | 76$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.89 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x074f…6abfbacked Yes | 75c | 74.98$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 51c | 73.87$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 72$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 30c | 70.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.98 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 43c | 69.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.67 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 61c | 66.58$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91f1…fc8bbacked Yes | 49c | 63.44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaba1…ac85backed No | 60c | 63.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 59c | 59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.08 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 45c | 57.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.73 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…03c2backed Yes | 48c | 55.73$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed Yes | 24c | 55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 28c | 54.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.86 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 36c | 53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 33c | 51.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x256e…ba7ebacked Yes | 37c | 50.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 71c | 48.32$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 40c | 47.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed No | 50c | 45.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…3157backed No | 58c | 42.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 27c | 37.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb17…ee85backed Yes | 40c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x796a…e815backed Yes | 43c | 33.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4c…5ff7backed Yes | 49c | 30.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x635a…cccbbacked Yes | 49c | 30.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 29.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 48c | 29.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23e2…47dabacked No | 47c | 27.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe805…e416backed No | 56c | 27.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 54c | 27.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 76c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x592e…2030backed Yes | 61c | 24.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae6e…b4bebacked No | 45c | 23.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed8…cad8backed No | 56c | 20.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf9…5211backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 54c | 19.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 64c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on May 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C or higher on May 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.