Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x771f062d5c1fd3336adfe59494e634a38e0f8bc11c54ceac1cd1bc60145358a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,939
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,676
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,939 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 21c | 558.75$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.89 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 70c | 371.72$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.92 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd24e…35f2backed Yes | 72c | 320.01$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.01 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 60c | 275.15$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.15 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 36c | 250.21$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.52 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd36b…5942backed Yes | 56c | 210.92$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 17c | 183$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 27c | 155.2$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.43 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 19c | 132.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 20c | 130.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80cb…4629backed Yes | 19c | 128.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 153 | 21.6%33 W · 120 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x258b…db84backed Yes | 32c | 127.32$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.85 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 122.79$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.34 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 40c | 106.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.52 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca65…f06fbacked Yes | 17c | 103.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 26c | 102$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.02 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 94.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes | 39c | 91.52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 13c | 86.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 77.78$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.09 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 47c | 77.21$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.69 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 20c | 74.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 44c | 69$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.49 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 68.47$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb719…c1e1backed No | 50c | 67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf625…ae8abacked Yes | 26c | 66.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x336e…bcc3backed Yes | 18c | 65.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +7.7wins | +0.16per pick | 31cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 35c | 63.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2d…0ef3backed Yes | 67c | 62$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.52 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91f1…fc8bbacked Yes | 70c | 57.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 29c | 51.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 201 | 73.1%147 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 64c | 47.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc28…9a83backed Yes | 36c | 47.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 78c | 47.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.69 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 44.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 79c | 44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 79c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 37c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed Yes | 61c | 34.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked No | 38c | 30.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 36c | 29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 28.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 46c | 28.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes | 51c | 27.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa276…3584backed Yes | 56c | 26.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 76c | 25.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 68c | 24.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 43c | 23.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 79c | 22.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 79c | 18.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked No | 79c | 18.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c94…2e06backed Yes | 70c | 18.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 80c | 14.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.06 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 77c | 14.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on May 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C or higher on May 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.