Premier League · resolved market
Stoke City FC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa323edde6f329221b644bf11eec698144c8a4d45e25fed1c96b07a54db4070cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,683
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,177
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,683 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86e5…c4b1backed Under | 54c | 3,311$1,788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,787.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd95a…c264backed Under | 54c | 3,059$1,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,651.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 51c | 2,196$1,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,129.97 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d4…6a2abacked Over | 46c | 1,275$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…9b7abacked Over | 46c | 1,189$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa510…4f4abacked Over | 46c | 1,122$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ca…1a46backed Over | 46c | 1,019$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Over | 45c | 964.44$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.44 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6f…de9dbacked Over | 46c | 914$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0775…eca8backed Under | 55c | 909.09$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 174 | 28.2%49 W · 125 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf7…cf5cbacked Over | 46c | 851$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Over | 47c | 439.7$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.04 | 108 | 38.9%42 W · 66 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.53 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 56c | 390.17$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.91 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2496…50a5backed Over | 44c | 340.91$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.91 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 47c | 184$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.52 | 222 | 29.3%65 W · 157 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 45c | 132.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.58 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 45c | 128.09$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.45 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 66c | 120$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 721 | 42.7%308 W · 413 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb4…d481backed Under | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 66c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 457 | 51.2%234 W · 223 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…379dbacked Under | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x884d…1da6backed Under | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 55c | 46.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 1,006 | 46.6%469 W · 537 L | -20.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Over | 66c | 38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d6…a56abacked Over | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +58%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90bb…1bdbbacked Over | 47c | 31.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0959…b4d0backed Over | 47c | 25.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x501d…8e6fbacked Under | 55c | 24.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Over | 46c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 410 | 40.5%166 W · 244 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Stoke City FC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Stoke City FC vs. Middlesbrough FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Stoke City FC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Stoke City FC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Stoke City FC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.