NFL · resolved market
Spread: IND (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa34fae85e9233069a9d6e667da4ca671b8512a3c375114d66cd82f170ce25fed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- NEof IND, NE
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,163
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,357
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,163 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked IND | 57c | 13,734$7,781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,780.75 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked NE | 43c | 10,000$4,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,700 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…0171backed IND | 57c | 5,263$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6129…0807backed NE | 43c | 4,247$1,832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,415.12 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed NE | 44c | 2,313$1,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,296.06 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed NE | 44c | 1,605$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.04 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked NE | 58c | 631.85$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.35 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed NE | 43c | 600$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…c9a7backed IND | 38c | 480.84$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.81 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed NE | 52c | 319.13$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.18 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdd…8fd9backed IND | 53c | 224.77$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked NE | 49c | 204$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.04 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed IND | 44c | 172.58$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.29 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed IND | 46c | 111$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.61 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed NE | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed IND | 56c | 98.52$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.13 | 223 | 49.8%111 W · 112 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc98b…c6f3backed IND | 57c | 95.09$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed NE | 44c | 94$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.64 | 314 | 50%157 W · 157 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked IND | 43c | 73.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked IND | 57c | 62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked NE | 48c | 53.58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 119 | 58%69 W · 50 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc429…1c89backed IND | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked NE | 48c | 21.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 133 | 39.8%53 W · 80 L | -10.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: IND (-2.5)this page
- IND vs. NE: O/U 36.5Under won
- IND vs. NE: O/U 37.5Under won
- IND vs. NE: O/U 38.5Under won
- IND vs. NE: O/U 39.5Under won
- Spread: IND (-3.5)NE won
- Spread: NE (-1.5)IND won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.