Champions League · resolved market
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3500620a5b9168f2d64fea1f5d1950db34b7ff7c08f7d14d05f546df730a367
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,582
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,760
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,582 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 20c | 11,279$2,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,217.79 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 9c | 6,636$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.78 | 266 | 45.9%122 W · 144 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8566…c626backed Over | 77c | 6,494$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,493.61 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0def…4ddbbacked Over | 76c | 4,500$3,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf023…4b61backed Under | 11c | 4,288$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 9c | 3,940$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.58 | 260 | 47.7%124 W · 136 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 20c | 2,689$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.28 | 424 | 38%161 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Under | 11c | 2,672$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.89 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 20c | 1,923$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.44 | 382 | 53.9%206 W · 176 L | +21.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 21c | 1,722$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.45 | 159 | 36.5%58 W · 101 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f21…3d6ebacked Under | 11c | 1,364$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f9…4731backed Under | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…9f72backed Over | 77c | 999.99$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed Under | 10c | 855.41$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.54 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Under | 21c | 712.56$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 10c | 569.98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 434 | 27.4%119 W · 315 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 9c | 499.95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…ef3abacked Over | 69c | 380.65$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.05 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 25c | 365.18$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.88 | 160 | 36.9%59 W · 101 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Under | 16c | 316.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +43%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 31c | 280.24$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.68 | 460 | 48.5%223 W · 237 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Under | 14c | 175.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 15c | 167.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 170 | 53.5%91 W · 79 L | +9.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Under | 28c | 144.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.46 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf10…557ebacked Under | 10c | 142.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 34c | 139.4$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.7 | 343 | 42.3%145 W · 198 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5a…13f5backed Under | 11c | 118.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0609…b093backed Under | 37c | 116.1$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.96 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed Under | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 69c | 75$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 107 | 60.7%65 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d76…90c2backed Over | 70c | 70.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbec3…760ebacked Over | 66c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1a…d5a3backed Under | 19c | 69.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Under | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…8147backed Under | 31c | 56.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x565a…7fb5backed Under | 25c | 54.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…c4fcbacked Under | 22c | 47.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3a…265ebacked Over | 74c | 40.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe94a…0ff1backed Over | 74c | 15.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. AS Monaco FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AS Monaco FC (-1.5)Paris Saint-Germain FC won
- Spread: AS Monaco FC (-2.5)Paris Saint-Germain FC won
- Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)AS Monaco FC won
- Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5)AS Monaco FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.