Us Politics · resolved market
Trump positive favorability on April 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa35f1a1ac892c3f5073c1ce63c9c4ca8d139334a3974205c564ef6ba23a3732c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $104,890
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $104,573
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $104,890 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84c6…c8c8backed Yes | 25c | 28,035$7,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,079.53 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb2…682cbacked No | 75c | 13,129$9,833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,296.46 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 58c | 10,528$6,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,379.88 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…dfb6backed No | 78c | 10,319$8,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,305 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 43c | 5,938$2,577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,576.72 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0347…e0e5backed Yes | 5c | 5,199$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.68 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…1594backed Yes | 21c | 5,000$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 20c | 3,188$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.58 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed Yes | 42c | 2,420$1,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,017.04 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes | 4c | 2,221$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.23 | 98 | 10.2%10 W · 88 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 31c | 1,427$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.99 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,150$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…c6c4backed No | 79c | 1,000$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadf4…ce9dbacked Yes | 20c | 824.35$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.55 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf8…042fbacked Yes | 25c | 799.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 4c | 700$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 177 | 13%23 W · 154 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 3c | 590.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…1aa4backed No | 61c | 550$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x542c…f12bbacked Yes | 24c | 525$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.21per pick | 32cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed Yes | 28c | 521.7$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.95 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 34c | 516.69$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.67 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 26c | 479.98$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.69 | 100 | 35%35 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf38d…52a2backed Yes | 9c | 464.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 450.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 4c | 446.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 49 | 0%0 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc280…de71backed No | 74c | 408.11$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.11 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa883…31fbbacked No | 59c | 339.34$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.34 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 5c | 336.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +269%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…8c80backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 306.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b11…8625backed Yes | 16c | 300$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25a…7dd5backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e8…45c9backed Yes | 4c | 283.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba2…eaa7backed No | 62c | 255$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.7 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d6…81febacked Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…294ebacked Yes | 5c | 240.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 5c | 232.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68d9…00edbacked No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e1…decdbacked No | 72c | 191$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.4 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…d8cabacked Yes | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -63%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea0…96febacked Yes | 17c | 186.04$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes | 33c | 185.44$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca8…4bc1backed Yes | 44c | 161.56$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…45a9backed Yes | 28c | 161.52$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74b5…e2ffbacked No | 78c | 119.7$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd621…db65backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -4.8wins | -0.34per pick | 49cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 10c | 105.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…37f0backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdba2…099cbacked No | 59c | 90$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 26c | 84.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5a…acaebacked Yes | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -65%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…57c8backed No | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d77…fdbebacked Yes | 17c | 64.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa416…025ebacked Yes | 17c | 64.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa448…79c1backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked No | 70c | 50.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…c9dabacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2aae…cb22backed No | 69c | 49.11$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa1b…c8cebacked Yes | 30c | 47.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1e…fd26backed Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…6ff3backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95ee…5b9fbacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 43 | 86%37 W · 6 L | +8.4wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…9099backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 83 | 77.1%64 W · 19 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…4bdfbacked No | 60c | 33.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc440…2e0ebacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a43…6f1cbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 65cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.