South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Grêmio FBPA vs. CD Riestra end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3849fedff7be7418d240cbbcf939673014207493b920b8374286f44667a95b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,599
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,497
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,599 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 31c | 3,539$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,098.68 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc72d…fc21backed No | 67c | 2,500$1,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 49c | 2,101$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.76 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x954e…927fbacked No | 73c | 1,764$1,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.41 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed No | 69c | 981.4$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.23 | 230 | 57.4%132 W · 98 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 51c | 733.19$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.66 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 43c | 680.34$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.01 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 73c | 583.93$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.82 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 52c | 491.94$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.45 | 650 | 58%377 W · 273 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 27c | 343.55$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.76 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 15c | 252.94$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked Yes | 10c | 249.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed No | 51c | 237.59$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.09 | 477 | 56%267 W · 210 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked No | 52c | 234.59$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.03 | 412 | 56.6%233 W · 179 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 34c | 230.07$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.1 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 28c | 219.06$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.47 | 165 | 34.5%57 W · 108 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972f…65bdbacked No | 43c | 205.49$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.13 | 132 | 57.6%76 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44d5…1a5bbacked No | 41c | 180.3$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.02 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 51c | 165.61$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.82 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 51c | 165.61$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.82 | 477 | 58.1%277 W · 200 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed No | 52c | 162.61$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.76 | 159 | 56.6%90 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed No | 52c | 160.22$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.74 | 367 | 57.5%211 W · 156 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…0ac5backed Yes | 75c | 131.33$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.5 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 75c | 131.33$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.5 | 151 | 58.3%88 W · 63 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…b8eabacked Yes | 27c | 107.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 27c | 95.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Yes | 14c | 90.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 130 | 23.1%30 W · 100 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed No | 26c | 86.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f42…a8febacked Yes | 51c | 76.31$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.31per pick | 68cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…b875backed Yes | 38c | 76.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb94…7bc0backed No | 51c | 66.82$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.74 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…fa41backed No | 57c | 66.44$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 133 | 73.7%98 W · 35 L | +22.2wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5e…8fd0backed No | 37c | 65.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 52c | 64.79$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.82 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked No | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…d1efbacked Yes | 33c | 58.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed No | 51c | 47.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 172 | 61%105 W · 67 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc856…f642backed No | 48c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef20…c46abacked No | 79c | 44.26$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 38 | 81.6%31 W · 7 L | +10.2wins | +0.27per pick | 55cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Yes | 75c | 40.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 104 | 65.4%68 W · 36 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cd…e951backed No | 68c | 37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0591…fb4abacked Yes | 61c | 32.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked No | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 68c | 28.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed No | 74c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 507 | 46.7%237 W · 270 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked No | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 106 | 54.7%58 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa64f…e598backed No | 68c | 20.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2568…ef92backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ed…5f9dbacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3dd…cdaebacked No | 68c | 16.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…9d28backed No | 70c | 14.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Grêmio FBPA vs. CD Riestra end in a draw?this page
- Will CD Riestra win on 2026-04-14?No won
- Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-04-14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.