MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3888942921bed993abd52dc76189eec3c65170f37a8e52e8e06ef2a88396d37
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Louis Cardinalsof New York Mets, St. Louis Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,374
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,422
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,374 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 56c | 45,692$25,403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,289.35 | 501 | 53.5%268 W · 233 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed St. Louis Cardinals | 56c | 23,980$13,429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,551.19 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b1…78fdbacked New York Mets | 44c | 22,618$9,952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,951.76 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cdc…b83fbacked New York Mets | 44c | 19,154$8,428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,427.78 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 42cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked New York Mets | 45c | 10,150$4,568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,567.5 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed New York Mets | 44c | 5,310$2,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,332.26 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked New York Mets | 45c | 4,913$2,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,210.85 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed New York Mets | 44c | 4,344$1,918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,917.94 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 56c | 3,455$1,935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,520.03 | 172 | 48.8%84 W · 88 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed New York Mets | 44c | 3,136$1,382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,381.71 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed New York Mets | 44c | 2,265$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996.51 | 366 | 49.2%180 W · 186 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed St. Louis Cardinals | 53c | 1,332$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.05 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed New York Mets | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed St. Louis Cardinals | 78c | 924.93$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.24 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 55c | 806.4$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.87 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked New York Mets | 46c | 797.49$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.84 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked New York Mets | 45c | 710.11$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.66 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed New York Mets | 45c | 499.97$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.99 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf21…2ed8backed New York Mets | 47c | 412$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.64 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf209…15b9backed St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 345.84$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.71 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 56c | 338.95$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.45 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed New York Mets | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed New York Mets | 45c | 214.89$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.7 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked New York Mets | 45c | 214.89$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.7 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed New York Mets | 47c | 206.1$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.82 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed St. Louis Cardinals | 56c | 179.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.83 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed St. Louis Cardinals | 55c | 141.53$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.69 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed St. Louis Cardinals | 55c | 120.3$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.13 | 133 | 51.9%69 W · 64 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51b…90a8backed New York Mets | 20c | 119$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 171 | 52.6%90 W · 81 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd12…9debbacked New York Mets | 44c | 108.24$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed New York Mets | 44c | 105.76$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.53 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed New York Mets | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 736 | 53%390 W · 346 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked New York Mets | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…dbc0backed St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 85.44$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.74 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed New York Mets | 13c | 76.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xec69…d6d8backed St. Louis Cardinals | 56c | 74.77$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed New York Mets | 45c | 74.35$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 172 | 44.2%76 W · 96 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed St. Louis Cardinals | 54c | 69.44$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.94 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed New York Mets | 42c | 63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed New York Mets | 45c | 62.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…6f57backed St. Louis Cardinals | 56c | 58.42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed St. Louis Cardinals | 54c | 54.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed St. Louis Cardinals | 53c | 52.06$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 54c | 50.53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 312 | 50%156 W · 156 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65fc…c072backed New York Mets | 48c | 50.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed New York Mets | 45c | 48.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed New York Mets | 45c | 40.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 137 | 42.3%58 W · 79 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8df7…2ae8backed New York Mets | 44c | 39.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed St. Louis Cardinals | 55c | 38.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed New York Mets | 43c | 38.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…e8c8backed St. Louis Cardinals | 53c | 36.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 326 | 47.9%156 W · 170 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed St. Louis Cardinals | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2d…d7f8backed St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 34.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -5.8wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 53c | 32.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41c8…424fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 30.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 203 | 62.6%127 W · 76 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed New York Mets | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf137…9341backed New York Mets | 44c | 27.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…df70backed New York Mets | 44c | 26.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaed4…4cc9backed St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 25.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 55c | 24.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa427…f87fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 56c | 20.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…df5fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 398 | 50.3%200 W · 198 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed St. Louis Cardinals | 54c | 19.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)this page
- NRFI: New York Mets vs. St. Louis CardinalsYes won
- New York Mets vs. St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.