MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2bbb99cde99a72827992544b073019f5fb6754809fa7b051e10943f7401079fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,931
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,604
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,931 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 50c | 15,014$7,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,507.12 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 50c | 10,002$5,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,001.06 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa974…ef79backed Under | 52c | 4,864$2,529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,334.73 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ad…45f9backed Over | 48c | 1,459$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.44 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x762e…4bf0backed Under | 51c | 1,347$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.08 | 245 | 51.8%127 W · 118 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 50c | 1,021$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.68 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 52c | 657.5$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.6 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1e…63bbbacked Under | 50c | 582$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 50c | 499.91$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.99 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 49c | 484.1$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.21 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…1d07backed Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 50c | 272.67$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.31 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Over | 50c | 226.22$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.72 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 48c | 225.91$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.49 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Over | 48c | 203.45$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.66 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5782…8ce5backed Under | 50c | 194$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Under | 50c | 194$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Under | 50c | 194$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…d084backed Over | 51c | 190.31$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.06 | 203 | 50.2%102 W · 101 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…9924backed Under | 50c | 177.51$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.76 | 185 | 53%98 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59dd…7cffbacked Over | 49c | 174.05$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.86 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 31c | 159.3$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 54c | 142.27$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.99 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 135 | 60%81 W · 54 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3565…0b17backed Under | 50c | 87.3$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.65 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd45…f2aabacked Under | 50c | 75.78$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.89 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 50c | 72.8$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked Under | 50c | 68.29$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.15 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 56c | 65.44$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.55 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 48c | 64.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 50c | 62.25$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Over | 51c | 60.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 50c | 58.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Under | 52c | 55.68$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 44c | 48.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a27…2fdcbacked Over | 51c | 43.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 116 | 49.1%57 W · 59 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 50c | 40.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 321 | 52%167 W · 154 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe903…0b88backed Over | 41c | 30.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Under | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 49c | 22.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked Over | 50c | 20.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x330d…f0c4backed Under | 60c | 20.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.31per pick | 59cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ca…e04dbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5this page
- NRFI: New York Mets vs. St. Louis CardinalsYes won
- New York Mets vs. St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.