MLB · resolved market
NRFI: New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x258e078718a0633d0aee620f5fd030a345051e0a37e8acc8adac5c8dbdcd77c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,477
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,433
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,477 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa974…ef79backed Yes | 51c | 4,657$2,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,289.05 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed No | 49c | 2,588$1,268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,268.27 | 324 | 51.9%168 W · 156 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 1,301 | 50.2%653 W · 648 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed No | 64c | 743.09$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.86 | 90 | 21.1%19 W · 71 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 52c | 445.21$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.52 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Yes | 36c | 300$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 1,483 | 50.2%745 W · 738 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff6f…6311backed No | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5c…e316backed Yes | 32c | 275.99$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.81 | 146 | 41.8%61 W · 85 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x556c…93cebacked No | 50c | 247.35$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.68 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed No | 50c | 213.4$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.7 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes | 47c | 177.42$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.93 | 1,538 | 48.6%747 W · 791 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Yes | 47c | 141.2$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.84 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ca…5a71backed Yes | 49c | 106.63$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.38 | 252 | 47.6%120 W · 132 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18c9…0d17backed Yes | 49c | 72.71$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.08 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08f1…705cbacked Yes | 51c | 67.94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.29 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Yes | 48c | 57.69$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 193 | 43.5%84 W · 109 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed No | 52c | 56.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 1,201 | 49.1%590 W · 611 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked No | 50c | 43.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 51c | 39.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 950 | 41.5%394 W · 556 L | -48.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…8436backed No | 50c | 38.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 276 | 44.9%124 W · 152 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f59…e61dbacked Yes | 48c | 22.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 50c | 22.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- NRFI: New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinalsthis page
- New York Mets vs. St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.