Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on March 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3d64c11434cc8b67f77a4a2f59be15af77a7169932d8bfddb8e667fd3c7f0d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,911
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,911 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1667…8b83backed No | 1c | 926.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b28…d9c1backed No | 4c | 757.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 12c | 607.34$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.88 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 64c | 566.6$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.18 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 12c | 540.97$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.69 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…63d9backed Yes | 15c | 530.17$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.62 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…8486backed Yes | 47c | 377.43$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.41 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f82…6faebacked Yes | 14c | 368.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.49 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 8c | 343$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 339.83$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.41 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 11c | 328.66$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.36 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 11c | 310.39$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 24c | 309.94$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.82 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 20c | 279.35$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.12 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 19c | 260.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.96 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 67c | 223.66$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.33 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 14c | 217.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.72 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a6…703dbacked Yes | 25c | 216.73$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.11 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 17c | 184.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 177.02$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.94 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 10c | 158.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.72 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 17c | 152.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.78 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 15c | 150$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.7 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 20c | 135.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.22 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 63c | 131.78$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.12 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 8c | 131.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.1 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31df…6f1abacked Yes | 75c | 130.71$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…66f2backed Yes | 8c | 130.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.69 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 12c | 127.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.8 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 15c | 119.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.99 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 14c | 119.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.01 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0057…b1c7backed Yes | 19c | 118.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.23 | 148 | 26.4%39 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 11c | 108.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.85 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 96.79$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.17 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8406…b962backed No | 18c | 96.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 49cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 33c | 94.3$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 45c | 90$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 15c | 84.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.68 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 15c | 82.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.49 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5170…1950backed Yes | 14c | 76.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +279.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbea…76d0backed Yes | 33c | 68.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.03 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +6.0wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6204…b1fcbacked Yes | 16c | 64.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.2 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f08…73a8backed No | 78c | 63$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbf…cf4bbacked Yes | 18c | 58.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.23 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 77c | 58.39$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 25c | 49.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.22 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 45c | 43.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e55…9a76backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 39.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffe0…919ebacked Yes | 41c | 28.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 73c | 26.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 69c | 25.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on March 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on March 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.