Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcba4888ae1eb6cb35df0312b5b031ae7a9ebf8bcec27172763d99b1aa7684764
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,401
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,401 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1823…be60backed Yes | 0c | 10,170$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 26c | 324.54$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.85 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa530…88f6backed Yes | 38c | 324.49$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.96 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 15c | 318.15$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.82 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 6c | 291.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x744b…8d31backed Yes | 4c | 271.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 14c | 260.71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe8…fc76backed Yes | 40c | 247.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…8e67backed Yes | 36c | 212.36$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.49 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 76c | 194.92$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.12 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 12c | 191.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 187.73$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.27 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 60c | 164.45$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.36 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 65c | 163.74$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.89 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 60c | 155.1$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.01 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 74c | 149.61$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 147.9$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.52 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed No | 63c | 132.99$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8406…b962backed Yes | 42c | 119.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 49cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 33c | 114.33$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f4…c82cbacked No | 59c | 105.82$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.13 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d78…5678backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 28c | 99.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 60c | 94.26$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.27 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…09a5backed Yes | 36c | 89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84a9…dbc4backed Yes | 13c | 88.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf483…3f62backed Yes | 12c | 85.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x241d…be08backed Yes | 30c | 82.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 79.55$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf40…9e76backed Yes | 14c | 78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x883a…f76bbacked No | 61c | 73.73$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.76 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 41c | 72.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x338d…8549backed Yes | 43c | 70.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 40c | 70.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 22c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 60c | 69.85$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5f…867dbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 61.54$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 38c | 55.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 61c | 55.7$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 40c | 55.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…4a56backed Yes | 37c | 54.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 59c | 51.72$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55d5…7b83backed Yes | 37c | 48.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…12c2backed Yes | 41c | 48.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…8486backed Yes | 33c | 47.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 64c | 43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 31c | 42.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…0bd2backed No | 60c | 42.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -9.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 62c | 41.89$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x148f…2f09backed Yes | 39c | 40.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…97d8backed Yes | 35c | 40.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 65c | 38.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e89…a2bdbacked Yes | 38c | 37.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9b…4c67backed No | 72c | 34.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 41c | 34.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 37c | 33.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b9…7d93backed Yes | 41c | 32.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 38c | 30.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6204…b1fcbacked Yes | 35c | 29.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 72c | 27.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…794ebacked Yes | 40c | 26.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 38c | 26.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa279…c30dbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.21per pick | 37cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x151b…ef82backed No | 59c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 61c | 20.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2733…be07backed No | 61c | 20.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 73c | 20.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d9c…feaebacked No | 70c | 18.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 65c | 17.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 64c | 17.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on March 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on March 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.