Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed5b932574310431a4f315e1fcdbbea364dd779f7f542d1419c1ab26e6d2d114
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,865
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,865 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc4b…db02backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.9 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x360f…e6e1backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…2cfebacked Yes | 11c | 1,203$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.27 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 31c | 427.11$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.45 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe8…fc76backed Yes | 77c | 388.55$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 53c | 372.76$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.91 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 51c | 354.16$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.31 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 42c | 327.24$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.61 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31df…6f1abacked Yes | 12c | 320$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe979…0c8bbacked Yes | 27c | 315.59$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.3 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 309.62$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.76 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 65c | 261.24$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.83 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8406…b962backed Yes | 47c | 254.99$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 49cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 73c | 217.25$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.88 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 50c | 210.21$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.1 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 35c | 174.23$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.24 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 35c | 167.1$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.21 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 27c | 142.14$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.2 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf396…ea64backed No | 42c | 139.19$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 24c | 136.55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.4 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 64c | 133.66$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.32 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf074…8b51backed Yes | 51c | 127.45$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 47c | 122.74$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.27 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 42c | 121.29$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.52 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc603…89b1backed Yes | 9c | 119.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 54c | 109.46$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.83 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 29c | 103.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.82 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…cdc1backed Yes | 46c | 102.35$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 102.21$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.9 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 53c | 99.77$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.27 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 34c | 90.61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…9a5cbacked No | 35c | 87.61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.65 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 45c | 85.06$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.18 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 84.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 41c | 82.33$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.45 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked No | 23c | 76.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.81 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 75.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 47c | 74.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 44c | 72.74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed No | 28c | 72.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5e55…9a76backed Yes | 62c | 72.22$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.78 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 47c | 70.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…63d9backed Yes | 46c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…8e67backed Yes | 30c | 69.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9575backed Yes | 74c | 67.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 60c | 66.15$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…522abacked No | 30c | 65.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.19 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecc…d023backed Yes | 53c | 65.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 62c | 64.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 43c | 64.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 62.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.82 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 35c | 62.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.52 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…8486backed Yes | 55c | 58.59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.14 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…4e9fbacked Yes | 43c | 58.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc769…0925backed Yes | 36c | 56.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 41c | 55.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.57 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 69c | 53.06$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…1935backed No | 65c | 53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc046…4020backed Yes | 47c | 51.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78c7…d4cdbacked Yes | 59c | 50.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb3…8d26backed Yes | 44c | 50.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 48c | 50.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 40c | 50.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa654…58c9backed No | 41c | 48.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.76 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 41c | 48.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbafc…d03fbacked Yes | 38c | 46.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +29%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6160…fdfcbacked No | 33c | 45.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.63 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 61c | 45.65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 67c | 45.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Yes | 75c | 45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 66c | 44.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc45…14bcbacked Yes | 60c | 44.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd54…cd50backed No | 32c | 43.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a9…13dabacked Yes | 50c | 43.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbea…76d0backed Yes | 33c | 41.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +6.0wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…acc7backed No | 62c | 40.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 62c | 40.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 39.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12b2…74b8backed No | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 89 | 68.5%61 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 27c | 38.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…10efbacked Yes | 53c | 37.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 64c | 35.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcd…bdcdbacked No | 66c | 35.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd7b…1357backed Yes | 35c | 34.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 47c | 34.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked No | 56c | 33.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 49c | 33.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 78c | 33.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 31c | 32.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 65c | 31.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6204…b1fcbacked Yes | 33c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on March 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on March 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.