Champions League · resolved market
Ararat-Armenia FA vs. NK Celje: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa41aea5bff70ead668c67f6e9bc745ef9ddc3e7535a9afd55dc8a50cd10af573
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,554
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,267
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,554 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef54…1444backed Under | 52c | 4,095$2,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,147.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 41c | 3,313$1,371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,370.99 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +20.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 44c | 2,110$923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,186.74 | 164 | 40.9%67 W · 97 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 50c | 1,510$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.74 | 723 | 35.5%257 W · 466 L | -28.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed Over | 47c | 1,271$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.42 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…bf4cbacked Under | 5c | 1,083$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 48c | 1,041$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.32 | 607 | 48.4%294 W · 313 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 64c | 853.39$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.16 | 1,021 | 35.3%360 W · 661 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb76b…d1f0backed Under | 12c | 742.32$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.32 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…5998backed Under | 2c | 662.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +7.3wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 486.6$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.08 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Under | 60c | 411.45$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.14 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde39…2fa1backed Over | 61c | 409.83$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.83 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 47c | 400$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 432 | 52.3%226 W · 206 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 48c | 379.29$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.23 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +9.2wins | +0.24per pick | 34cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 3c | 346.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 440 | 33.9%149 W · 291 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 47c | 237.9$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.95 | 520 | 46.7%243 W · 277 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Over | 48c | 215.89$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.26 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Over | 55c | 193.7$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.56 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Over | 49c | 185.78$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.75 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 37cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Over | 49c | 185.78$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.75 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf20…1881backed Under | 21c | 113.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 18c | 101.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Over | 74c | 94.03$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda0d…72a0backed Under | 23c | 84.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabef…cf4ebacked Under | 29c | 68.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 55c | 65.9$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.06 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Over | 49c | 65.77$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.54 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1425…3bc8backed Under | 55c | 62.32$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…93f9backed Under | 63c | 61.03$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 56c | 59.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 308 | 56.8%175 W · 133 L | +11.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Under | 53c | 58.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 55c | 57.41$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 107 | 43.9%47 W · 60 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 56c | 56.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 55c | 54.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Under | 51c | 52.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Under | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 26c | 47.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 446 | 47.3%211 W · 235 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 51c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 242 | 52.5%127 W · 115 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd8…53c9backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 42c | 37.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 154 | 48.7%75 W · 79 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a60…7b81backed Under | 43c | 33.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 41c | 32.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97a7…ac24backed Over | 46c | 31.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…b629backed Over | 49c | 24.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 19 | 84.2%16 W · 3 L | +7.6wins | +0.40per pick | 44cpaid | +136%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 49c | 23.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 222 | 45%100 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 49c | 22.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 83 | 68.7%57 W · 26 L | +13.8wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 52c | 20.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Under | 52c | 19.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…208ebacked Over | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ararat-Armenia FA vs. NK Celje: O/U 2.5this page
- Ararat-Armenia FA vs. NK Celje: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Ararat-Armenia FA vs. NK Celje: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Ararat-Armenia FA vs. NK Celje: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Ararat-Armenia FA vs. NK Celje: O/U 0.5Over won
- Ararat-Armenia FA vs. NK Celje: O/U 1.5Over won
- Ararat-Armenia FA vs. NK Celje: O/U 3.5Under won
- Ararat-Armenia FA vs. NK Celje: O/U 4.5Under won
- Ararat-Armenia FA vs. NK Celje: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Ararat-Armenia FA (-1.5)NK Celje won
- Spread: Ararat-Armenia FA (-2.5)NK Celje won
- Spread: NK Celje (-1.5)Ararat-Armenia FA won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.