Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on August 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa428ff7365a91f84ebc8fd170b51d2269cfa9342a6c58b7a6486db06bce47b44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,294
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,399
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,294 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 583.06$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.57 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb530…3c03backed Yes | 2c | 510.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 35c | 321.33$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.5 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 79c | 298.99$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.21 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 65c | 171.15$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.9 | 726 | 20.4%148 W · 578 L | -46.9wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 164.91$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.29 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 161.1$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.55 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 29c | 132.57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.84 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 68c | 126.91$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.76 | 892 | 59.8%533 W · 359 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 33c | 111$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.64 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0458…ddc2backed Yes | 24c | 102.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 32c | 100.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 99.76$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.26 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 98$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…42cabacked Yes | 32c | 92.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc84e…c63cbacked Yes | 32c | 86.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 69c | 85.38$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 68c | 83.88$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 346 | 67.6%234 W · 112 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 74c | 81.13$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89df…4bf0backed Yes | 32c | 78.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 79c | 76$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 32c | 68.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 290 | 43.8%127 W · 163 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 77c | 63.72$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 67c | 63.6$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 32c | 55.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 54.72$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d43…9719backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d90…3c23backed Yes | 33c | 46.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 33c | 42.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 260 | 38.5%100 W · 160 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 77c | 39.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 31c | 38.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 456 | 30%137 W · 319 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 65c | 37.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55be…6c65backed No | 74c | 36.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6288…fd46backed No | 67c | 35.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x501b…8119backed No | 68c | 33.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ba…768abacked No | 68c | 28.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e56…3aebbacked No | 72c | 20.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 72cpaid | +26%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 203 | 70%142 W · 61 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on August 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on August 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C or higher on August 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.