Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on August 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbbb7b95be8a076d6cac4025dc8740d8ad80aa64c16bfc2aa5097cc6ea796b268
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,170
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,853
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,170 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 49c | 636.49$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.54 | 892 | 59.8%533 W · 359 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 42c | 479$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.31 | 629 | 60.3%379 W · 250 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 61c | 337.81$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.27 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 44c | 302.69$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.7 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 6c | 274.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1516…9f4cbacked Yes | 65c | 240$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55be…6c65backed No | 40c | 165.83$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.74 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 48c | 165.41$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.01 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 159.64$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.08 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 63c | 152.95$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.15 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 51c | 138$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.38 | 1,196 | 50.8%608 W · 588 L | -27.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 42c | 134.76$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.16 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 19c | 123.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 33c | 120.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.24 | 726 | 20.4%148 W · 578 L | -46.9wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 42c | 111$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.83 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 60c | 109.26$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.01 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 33c | 104.1$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 58c | 103$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.74 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 221 | 16.7%37 W · 184 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 457 | 46.4%212 W · 245 L | -20.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 456 | 30%137 W · 319 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 43c | 88.13$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.23 | 251 | 58.6%147 W · 104 L | +14.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 50c | 83.88$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.94 | 1,632 | 60.7%990 W · 642 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 50c | 82.24$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 47c | 62.54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 41c | 61.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.38 | 198 | 38.9%77 W · 121 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 25c | 58.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 31c | 58.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 58c | 55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 997 | 57.2%570 W · 427 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…35d0backed No | 46c | 54.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 57c | 52.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 50c | 52.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 4,032 | 35.6%1,436 W · 2,596 L | +42.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 901 | 55.7%502 W · 399 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 44c | 48.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 49c | 44.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 36c | 44.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 41c | 43.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 1,268 | 58.4%740 W · 528 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 260 | 38.5%100 W · 160 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 40c | 35.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 576 | 54.3%313 W · 263 L | +16.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 36c | 33.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd358…cfbdbacked Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…08f6backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x487d…6813backed Yes | 45c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 43c | 25.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 45c | 25.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 1,178 | 40.6%478 W · 700 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…871ebacked No | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa589…9ec9backed No | 60c | 24.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 58c | 24.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 46c | 23.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 43c | 23.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 296 | 28.4%84 W · 212 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…463ebacked No | 51c | 22.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…a665backed No | 58c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ed…a8dabacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…f233backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…87c9backed No | 54c | 19.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -9.6wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…1746backed No | 62c | 19.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2799…b1e1backed No | 57c | 17.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92df…7a08backed Yes | 72c | 15.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on August 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C or higher on August 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.