Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on August 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74d3a8337668853098e7c1685b676a851777088613924fcda8ff4449d22d49b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,573
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,502
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,573 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 13c | 635.49$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.17 | 3,064 | 33.5%1,027 W · 2,037 L | +13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 13c | 355.1$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.76 | 2,299 | 17.8%409 W · 1,890 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 78c | 338.18$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.33 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 15c | 288.78$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 13c | 192$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 46c | 180.85$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.84 | 96 | 71.9%69 W · 27 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x487d…6813backed Yes | 12c | 171$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 165.26$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.42 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…91aabacked Yes | 51c | 155.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x001c…e5edbacked Yes | 49c | 143.3$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.45 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 13c | 134.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 580 | 53.4%310 W · 270 L | -26.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 68c | 134.69$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 9c | 117.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 198 | 38.9%77 W · 121 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked Yes | 13c | 108.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 316 | 57.6%182 W · 134 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8220…2d1ebacked Yes | 16c | 105$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 82 | 26.8%22 W · 60 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 22c | 103.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 620 | 44%273 W · 347 L | +25.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 855 | 48.7%416 W · 439 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 13c | 99.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 456 | 30%137 W · 319 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 13c | 99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 465 | 59.1%275 W · 190 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 15c | 89.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 632 | 47.3%299 W · 333 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 56c | 76.6$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.36 | 726 | 20.4%148 W · 578 L | -46.9wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x556b…4e33backed Yes | 65c | 74.11$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -10.3wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked Yes | 26c | 65.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fc…d98abacked Yes | 34c | 59.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 74c | 56.65$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 1,244 | 61.7%767 W · 477 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…8834backed No | 80c | 50.16$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 139 | 47.5%66 W · 73 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 64c | 46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 527 | 43.6%230 W · 297 L | +31.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 80c | 45.12$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 42c | 42.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 64c | 29.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 64c | 29.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 814 | 57.5%468 W · 346 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 80c | 28.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 55c | 26.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 2,548 | 45.4%1,157 W · 1,391 L | +23.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 203 | 70%142 W · 61 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 71c | 19.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 69c | 18.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 77c | 17.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,322 | 75.9%1,004 W · 318 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 78c | 15.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 213 | 63.4%135 W · 78 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on August 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on August 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C or higher on August 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.