NHL · resolved market
Spread: Wild (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4362a55d2c8a65a27f4c3d26a94e9f88548297e98b7c6d10bc140e67e9d3627
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Red Wingsof Wild, Red Wings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,275
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,553
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,275 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Wild | 39c | 7,760$3,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,026.49 | 100 | 50%50 W · 50 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Red Wings | 61c | 3,829$2,335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,493.15 | 282 | 51.8%146 W · 136 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf35f…64c5backed Red Wings | 61c | 2,964$1,808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,156 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Red Wings | 61c | 1,020$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.82 | 751 | 55.8%419 W · 332 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Wild | 39c | 940$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.6 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Red Wings | 61c | 550$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.5 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Wild | 38c | 401.8$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.28 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Wild | 33c | 381.34$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.03 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…a569backed Red Wings | 67c | 358.63$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.63 | 226 | 55.8%126 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Red Wings | 61c | 342$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.38 | 125 | 48.8%61 W · 64 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Red Wings | 61c | 250$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 388 | 44.6%173 W · 215 L | -17.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Wild | 39c | 250$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Red Wings | 62c | 249.95$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.98 | 237 | 51.5%122 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Wild | 14c | 225.1$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5885…14c1backed Red Wings | 64c | 135.13$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Wild | 36c | 126.96$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.71 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Wild | 14c | 125.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Red Wings | 66c | 121.21$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Red Wings | 59c | 117.9$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.34 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Wild | 41c | 117.9$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.34 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x877a…7de2backed Wild | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Wild | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 702 | 49%344 W · 358 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Red Wings | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x707b…416abacked Wild | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Red Wings | 65c | 78.18$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Wild | 37c | 74.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 112 | 48.2%54 W · 58 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf2…6373backed Red Wings | 73c | 69.85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Red Wings | 62c | 64.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4865…904dbacked Red Wings | 63c | 53.25$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 104 | 59.6%62 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Red Wings | 80c | 52.67$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Red Wings | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…06c5backed Wild | 36c | 45.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Wild | 37c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Wild | 38c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…05d5backed Wild | 39c | 33.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Red Wings | 75c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 183 | 44.8%82 W · 101 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Wild | 36c | 32.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Red Wings | 65c | 32.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…b65bbacked Wild | 38c | 31.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bd…5e2dbacked Red Wings | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa327…f97abacked Red Wings | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…4d2cbacked Red Wings | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85fb…462fbacked Red Wings | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a0…35b6backed Wild | 39c | 28.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Red Wings | 62c | 26.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Wild (-1.5)this page
- Red Wings vs. WildWild won
- Red Wings vs. Wild: O/U 5.5Over won
- Red Wings vs. Wild: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.