Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Marquette Golden Eagles vs. Xavier Musketeers: O/U 156.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa43aa4551a2cabcda8e112729c77aa69fb1f51740964c660701e7788975f3da9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $81,707
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,713
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,707 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c2b…2575backed Over | 52c | 60,731$31,652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,079.54 | 609 | 49.8%303 W · 306 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe248…f293backed Under | 48c | 32,000$15,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,480 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +38.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 46c | 18,161$8,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,354.17 | 896 | 45.9%411 W · 485 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 46c | 7,500$3,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,450 | 906 | 45.4%411 W · 495 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Over | 54c | 3,600$1,944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,656 | 146 | 47.9%70 W · 76 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8738…222bbacked Under | 48c | 3,125$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 255 | 56.1%143 W · 112 L | +12.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e16…0127backed Under | 47c | 1,008$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.76 | 137 | 46.7%64 W · 73 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a9…e73abacked Under | 47c | 777$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.19 | 267 | 49.1%131 W · 136 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff9…009dbacked Under | 47c | 553.19$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under | 48c | 480$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.2 | 693 | 50.4%349 W · 344 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15f9…607ebacked Under | 48c | 447.99$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.72 | 321 | 46.7%150 W · 171 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 54c | 381.99$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.11 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1a…68d8backed Over | 55c | 300.2$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.09 | 119 | 57.1%68 W · 51 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf37c…3c74backed Under | 46c | 293.65$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.08 | 218 | 30.7%67 W · 151 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 45c | 289$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.05 | 841 | 47.4%399 W · 442 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23c8…f293backed Under | 45c | 105.36$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.41 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +5.6wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 1,162 | 55.2%641 W · 521 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 939 | 41.6%391 W · 548 L | +25.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…ef6bbacked Under | 48c | 95.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 141 | 48.9%69 W · 72 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 46c | 92.21$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 573 | 35.6%204 W · 369 L | -27.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…569fbacked Over | 55c | 35.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 48c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 891 | 46.2%412 W · 479 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Under | 47c | 22.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 123 | 55.3%68 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73c5…e3e9backed Over | 55c | 18.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Marquette Golden Eagles vs. Xavier Musketeers: O/U 156.5this page
- Marquette Golden Eagles vs. Xavier MusketeersXavier Musketeers won
- Marquette Golden Eagles vs. Xavier Musketeers: O/U 155.5Over won
- Spread: Xavier Musketeers (-2.5)Xavier Musketeers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.