MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa44d8773be3e0881264e443aa2284feabf6e74a7efbdd81bf4dd8cb43f149dc7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,916
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,680
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,916 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 29c | 1,328$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.53 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 62c | 1,190$732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.06 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 69c | 1,037$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.47 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 47c | 858.59$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 67c | 620.35$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.59 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 10c | 364.01$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.14 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e80…416dbacked Over | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 34c | 275.33$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.05 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 67c | 208$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.13 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 33c | 181.03$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.97 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 40c | 136.23$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.08 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 66c | 134.12$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.01 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 74c | 120$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 28c | 99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 73c | 85.92$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 59c | 79.38$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 32c | 44.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcadd…c7e6backed Over | 36c | 41.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Under | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5559…2bd2backed Under | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Under | 77c | 18.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee95…b346backed Under | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 66c | 15.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 4.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-4.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. New York MetsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.