MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1581141a87c6c4e6c48eaf58ce04383c115ef98d95d733b0912e638cda1eeac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,984
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,462
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,984 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 37c | 5,029$1,868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,867.86 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa974…ef79backed Over | 46c | 5,000$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,300 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 59c | 4,160$2,464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,696.94 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 17c | 3,608$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.91 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x762e…4bf0backed Under | 59c | 2,802$1,653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,148.69 | 245 | 51.8%127 W · 118 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Over | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 241 | 50.6%122 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 42c | 1,731$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.61 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 54c | 1,680$907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$772.78 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 33c | 1,241$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.52 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 44c | 1,098$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.26 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 39c | 821.13$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.48 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 58c | 676$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.22 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 46c | 530.93$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.88 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a47…3b21backed Under | 63c | 377.43$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.85 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 37c | 371.87$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.4 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 54c | 370$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.2 | 1,137 | 46.3%526 W · 611 L | +36.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Under | 49c | 250$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ca…9de7backed Under | 68c | 227.94$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.94 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 54c | 209.73$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.48 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 268 | 60.4%162 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Under | 55c | 192.73$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.73 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 40c | 187.81$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.75 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 57c | 175.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.48 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 33c | 152.76$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.97 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…2726backed Under | 55c | 147.27$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.27 | 230 | 51.7%119 W · 111 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 37c | 146$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.92 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Under | 55c | 145.45$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.45 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 43c | 142.5$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.7 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 55c | 133.33$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 54c | 120$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 68c | 113.29$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.25 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fff…5495backed Over | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +7.3wins | +0.20per pick | 56cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 55c | 98.89$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.18 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 59c | 93$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.87 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcadd…c7e6backed Over | 41c | 74.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 20c | 74.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 64c | 69$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…3340backed Under | 68c | 67.56$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 324 | 50.9%165 W · 159 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 67c | 63.23$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 45c | 62.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae40…9edabacked Under | 55c | 57.27$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 68c | 55.84$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 39c | 53.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 39c | 53.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Under | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Over | 43c | 51.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 219 | 44.7%98 W · 121 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 254 | 48.4%123 W · 131 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 45c | 42.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 45c | 39.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Under | 54c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Over | 45c | 30.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 63c | 30.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Under | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 46c | 27.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Under | 60c | 26.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Under | 55c | 25.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1362…f403backed Over | 46c | 24.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 55c | 22.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 54c | 20.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa02e…60d0backed Under | 70c | 16.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 4.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-4.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. New York MetsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.