MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96477706048f52128cd717d5ec35bd9530080a255ceb9d0f19482eee7ebce9c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Metsof New York Mets, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,953
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,703
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,953 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 1,992$1,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,238.46 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Miami Marlins | 55c | 1,564$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.85 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Mets | 32c | 1,311$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.66 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed New York Mets | 36c | 1,250$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.78 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed New York Mets | 36c | 1,006$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.56 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked New York Mets | 39c | 965.72$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.15 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Miami Marlins | 69c | 808.02$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.39 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 704.31$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.76 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked New York Mets | 65c | 628$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.81 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked New York Mets | 37c | 441.5$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.15 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Mets | 54c | 388.73$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.84 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Miami Marlins | 63c | 299.99$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 294.49$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.47 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Miami Marlins | 14c | 258.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed New York Mets | 35c | 247.06$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.59 | 241 | 50.6%122 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ad…71acbacked Miami Marlins | 65c | 209.09$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.91 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -8.5wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -23%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 200.03$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.02 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Miami Marlins | 34c | 177$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.18 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Miami Marlins | 71c | 139.62$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.13 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed New York Mets | 40c | 139.31$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.29 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc281…e079backed Miami Marlins | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked New York Mets | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Miami Marlins | 77c | 87$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.83 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Miami Marlins | 71c | 84.54$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.02 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Miami Marlins | 74c | 71.43$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.86 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed New York Mets | 40c | 70$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Miami Marlins | 67c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked New York Mets | 50c | 58.61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 57$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 57$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed New York Mets | 35c | 57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 1,137 | 46.3%526 W · 611 L | +36.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed New York Mets | 41c | 52.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed New York Mets | 35c | 50.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed New York Mets | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Miami Marlins | 34c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Miami Marlins | 68c | 42.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Miami Marlins | 76c | 36.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed New York Mets | 35c | 31.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe068…c5eabacked Miami Marlins | 57c | 29.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -7.8wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed New York Mets | 65c | 24.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcab…e9b8backed Miami Marlins | 50c | 24.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6de2…d0e5backed Miami Marlins | 51c | 21.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 102 | 8.8%9 W · 93 L | -31.9wins | -0.31per pick | 40cpaid | -82%equal weight | 22-0.25 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)this page
- Miami Marlins vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 4.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-4.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. New York MetsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.