TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
New York Metsof Miami Marlins, New York Mets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$646,320
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$639,180

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $646,320 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 229 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa5ea…d96abacked Miami Marlins47c406,192$189,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189,848.3721040%84 W · 126 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed New York Mets53c264,433$140,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124,283.6823948.5%116 W · 123 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked New York Mets54c90,000$48,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,40077053.9%415 W · 355 L+8.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Miami Marlins30c35,588$10,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,847.6710,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked New York Mets56c31,330$17,537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,793.72,96948.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Miami Marlins48c20,863$9,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,980.1298149.9%490 W · 491 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Miami Marlins46c20,088$9,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,240.411,38549.5%685 W · 700 L-4.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2dc1…b33cbacked New York Mets60c19,277$11,512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,765.0826056.9%148 W · 112 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed New York Mets52c15,447$8,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,414.3327452.6%144 W · 130 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed New York Mets55c13,301$7,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,985.411,66050.1%832 W · 828 L-22.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Miami Marlins46c11,557$5,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,260.194,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed New York Mets53c10,500$5,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,93055052.4%288 W · 262 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfa6…6c6cbacked New York Mets54c10,025$5,413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,611.4414252.1%74 W · 68 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e64…336dbacked Miami Marlins47c10,000$4,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,70044945.4%204 W · 245 L-13.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1e6…1dc1backed New York Mets55c8,800$4,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,9608247.6%39 W · 43 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Miami Marlins34c7,531$2,534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,534.2795045.2%429 W · 521 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Miami Marlins41c6,484$2,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,630.012,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b63…bdd3backed Miami Marlins8c6,011$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.38458.9%4 W · 41 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-62.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6db5…e279backed Miami Marlins36c5,982$2,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,147.0914152.5%74 W · 67 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Miami Marlins39c5,595$2,181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,180.6312,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Miami Marlins0c5,468$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.058762.9%25 W · 851 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b44…3992backed New York Mets60c4,819$2,892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,927.7115659%92 W · 64 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed New York Mets53c4,623$2,462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,160.293,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked New York Mets53c4,570$2,422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,147.91,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3d2…fe85backed New York Mets54c3,900$2,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7942365.2%15 W · 8 L+3.1wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+29.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed New York Mets53c3,747$1,986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,76113534.1%46 W · 89 L-8.5wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed New York Mets59c3,517$2,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,437.959,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Miami Marlins42c3,000$1,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2455,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed New York Mets53c3,000$1,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,41077951.1%398 W · 381 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed New York Mets53c2,500$1,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1751,06348.2%512 W · 551 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5453…65cebacked New York Mets55c2,426$1,328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,098.511848.3%57 W · 61 L+0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5674…2ff4backed New York Mets59c2,410$1,422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$987.9512759.8%76 W · 51 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4861…3aaebacked New York Mets60c2,410$1,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$963.8612759.1%75 W · 52 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed New York Mets54c2,377$1,283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,093.11,05648.3%510 W · 546 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Miami Marlins46c2,013$926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$925.971,57248.3%759 W · 813 L-6.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcba5…cd88backed New York Mets54c2,000$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92066050.2%331 W · 329 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd3c7…d601backed New York Mets55c1,909$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$859.0910750.5%54 W · 53 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked Miami Marlins46c1,887$868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$867.8591252.4%478 W · 434 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed New York Mets53c1,850$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$869.4485645.3%388 W · 468 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+36.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed New York Mets72c1,560$1,118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.74,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked New York Mets62c1,536$946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.228,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52e3…3337backed New York Mets54c1,500$810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$689.9243253.9%233 W · 199 L+12.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa969…1a84backed New York Mets54c1,371$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$630.6617452.9%92 W · 82 L+8.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf49…b4a5backed New York Mets54c1,296$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$596.320657.8%119 W · 87 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Miami Marlins46c1,276$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.962,04553.8%1,100 W · 945 L+32.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87af…c990backed Miami Marlins46c1,087$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50032742.2%138 W · 189 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Miami Marlins46c1,000$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.386,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed New York Mets53c1,000$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47011642.2%49 W · 67 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked New York Mets53c1,000$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4702,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins40c874.91$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.0211,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41b4…10dabacked Miami Marlins44c850$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37419950.3%100 W · 99 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked New York Mets54c800$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36885952.6%452 W · 407 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Miami Marlins28c779.4$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.779147.9%379 W · 412 L+3.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed New York Mets72c657.7$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.252,14750.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L+27.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Miami Marlins45c624$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.82,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x914a…920fbacked New York Mets55c609.09$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.094959.2%29 W · 20 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+16.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xedf7…67fdbacked New York Mets54c600$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27837748.8%184 W · 193 L-1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x085c…99e3backed New York Mets54c599.99$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27824448.4%118 W · 126 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Miami Marlins45c594.1$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.352,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed New York Mets72c560.55$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.881,49958.9%883 W · 616 L+75.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x46d1…8d0ebacked New York Mets54c555.56$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.562650%13 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Miami Marlins47c532.72$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501,21340.5%491 W · 722 L-32.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ade…ed94backed Miami Marlins46c531.91$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.6838444.3%170 W · 214 L-13.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa535…9e5ebacked New York Mets54c518.52$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.5246749.5%231 W · 236 L-12.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3599…5338backed New York Mets54c511.11$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.1112848.4%62 W · 66 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa99f…164bbacked New York Mets59c508.47$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.4710744.9%48 W · 59 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc630…fbe4backed Miami Marlins42c476.19$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004228.6%12 W · 30 L-5.7wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-39.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked New York Mets55c475.22$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.541,51551.1%774 W · 741 L+7.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x59b6…307fbacked New York Mets56c462.77$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.7781257.3%465 W · 347 L-1.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf7…443bbacked Miami Marlins3c442.21$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.21425%1 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick3cpaid+660.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d74…f2abbacked Miami Marlins47c415.81$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.435257.7%30 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a47…3b21backed Miami Marlins46c403$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.388856.8%50 W · 38 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9783…dccabacked New York Mets54c400$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1847354.8%40 W · 33 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86a6…1b3ebacked New York Mets60c395$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+17%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Miami Marlins31c373.16$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.694,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd04…a64abacked New York Mets54c370.37$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.3732350.5%163 W · 160 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe292…84b8backed Miami Marlins45c369.99$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.51,40243.1%604 W · 798 L+4.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc313…e128backed New York Mets54c363.63$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.2737941.2%156 W · 223 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-0.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc235…99f8backed Miami Marlins46c300$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13889053.1%473 W · 417 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ec2…bd08backed Miami Marlins43c299.1$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.181,13742.6%484 W · 653 L+10.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfed7…e405backed New York Mets70c270$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.780159.2%474 W · 327 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7f9…646dbacked New York Mets74c269.95$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.95475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick75cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf429…969ebacked New York Mets56c269.09$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.0919842.9%85 W · 113 L-10.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Miami Marlins36c268$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.7671850.1%360 W · 358 L-0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Miami Marlins43c265.53$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.971,11349%545 W · 568 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked New York Mets53c243.99$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.6850751.7%262 W · 245 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb9c…877fbacked New York Mets60c242.64$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.49728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.31per pick59cpaid-53.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4c44…1168backed New York Mets56c239.96$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.4450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x059d…10e3backed Miami Marlins46c217.4$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10024646.7%115 W · 131 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1631…072dbacked Miami Marlins19c214.59$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4577353.9%417 W · 356 L+35.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Miami Marlins29c213.41$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.9969447.6%330 W · 364 L-9.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x85d8…3cbebacked Miami Marlins47c212.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10024950.6%126 W · 123 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa442…dca3backed Miami Marlins45c210.4$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.3321153.1%112 W · 99 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcda3…36cfbacked Miami Marlins45c204.99$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.251,31043.6%571 W · 739 L+13.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Miami Marlins46c200$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$923,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda74…2dd7backed Miami Marlins45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901,27743.1%550 W · 727 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Miami Marlins45c199.92$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.972,26145.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54d1…13f4backed New York Mets54c199.5$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.7739151.9%203 W · 188 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Miami Marlins45c195.15$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.8257046.8%267 W · 303 L+14.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x58d5…8898backed Miami Marlins45c190$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.51,20543%518 W · 687 L+4.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.