Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump's approval rating be between 44.0% and 44.9% on April 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa46a9924fadc9c101d4673963ea9c464cf25b4f2a2fb5b9467ed7b8e654ae22f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,099
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,974
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,099 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes | 33c | 4,324$1,409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,914.98 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes | 69c | 2,075$1,438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.49 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 36c | 1,212$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.22 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 11c | 608.25$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.56 | 148 | 19.6%29 W · 119 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 62c | 578.01$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.52 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 18c | 554.47$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.08 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6718…80d1backed Yes | 35c | 459.99$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.92 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 30c | 425$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.7 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd81b…38d8backed Yes | 14c | 356.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9741…4573backed Yes | 53c | 356.18$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.04 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 212$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.32 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff4b…d019backed Yes | 62c | 105.13$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.24 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 15c | 79.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd77e…098abacked Yes | 41c | 72.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 59c | 69.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.24 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 23c | 52.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52a3…e236backed Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7175…51b0backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 44.0% and 44.9% on April 25?this page
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 45.0% and 45.9% on April 25?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.0% and 46.9% on April 25?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be less than 44.0% on April 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.