Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 5°C on January 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa492f57b2065e372cab2806493fd27a7588db7c1c85bfb92a86cdd4eb0af839e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,256
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,767
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,256 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7d9d…5954backed Yes | 1c | 3,350$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec3a…a709backed Yes | 3c | 729.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 3c | 611.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 4c | 448.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c63…33cbbacked Yes | 27c | 444.29$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 13c | 354.73$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 23c | 285.59$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.03 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 29c | 253.83$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.68 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b5…6d52backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 57c | 199.71$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.72 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 44c | 188.64$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.6 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8740…70f4backed Yes | 66c | 151.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x361d…f2d9backed Yes | 12c | 145$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…a69abacked Yes | 37c | 139$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.43 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 131.29$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.9 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 49c | 121.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.32 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 71c | 111.11$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 111$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…30ddbacked Yes | 15c | 109.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 35c | 104.3$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5b…7f44backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 97.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…8c71backed Yes | 55c | 91.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36c7…2556backed Yes | 56c | 88.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.53 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77ca…2f7fbacked Yes | 59c | 85.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.43 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Yes | 40c | 85.39$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3058…a33bbacked Yes | 41c | 82.62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -54%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f67…0d67backed Yes | 26c | 77.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 53c | 73.58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.57 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed No | 63c | 69$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bdf…d53ebacked Yes | 46c | 50.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -34%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 38c | 49.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfef1…c407backed Yes | 40c | 47.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 45c | 43.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 63c | 40.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2008…db59backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe76c…1c3cbacked No | 53c | 39.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x582c…5ac7backed Yes | 51c | 39.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc00a…2424backed Yes | 53c | 37.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 57c | 34.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x095c…d20cbacked Yes | 61c | 31.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce14…cdf2backed Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -63%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94c8…b47ebacked Yes | 49c | 28.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4d…1a83backed Yes | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e9…faa5backed Yes | 55c | 24.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 60c | 21.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf2…8db7backed Yes | 65c | 20.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 5°C on January 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 3°C on January 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 4°C on January 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on January 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on January 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C or higher on January 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.