Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on January 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2bf801c4c3c0198fe4cfa06991372c7642ffb8eea6205c5e3e0ea25ebbf77087
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,262
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,450
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,262 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 2c | 5,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecb…514cbacked No | 9c | 1,300$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75a7…4630backed No | 72c | 1,068$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.61 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -46%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74b2…f6c3backed No | 5c | 766.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08cf…8cbcbacked Yes | 80c | 436.13$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.35 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 48c | 350.09$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.13 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 58c | 295.82$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.8 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 50c | 290$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.8 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 14c | 215.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b5…6d52backed No | 65c | 200$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 199.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 60c | 172.97$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.65 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3a…a709backed Yes | 76c | 167.43$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 12c | 161.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.01 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 49c | 155.71$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.8 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 35c | 142$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.3 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…a69abacked Yes | 46c | 140.72$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.41 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 16c | 133.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85b5…1948backed Yes | 46c | 132.61$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.14 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 23c | 109.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 35c | 99.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.39 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 55c | 98.21$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.86 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 55c | 92.73$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.73 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab3…c7a9backed Yes | 70c | 85.56$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 25c | 78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.17 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…c095backed Yes | 50c | 58.68$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked Yes | 49c | 57.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5889…2770backed Yes | 54c | 56.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 46c | 53.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f8…503abacked Yes | 41c | 51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 112 | 28.6%32 W · 80 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 64c | 49.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6de0…af02backed No | 51c | 48.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2008…db59backed Yes | 48c | 39.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…1a57backed Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…439fbacked No | 65c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 189 | 10.6%20 W · 169 L | -87.5wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -84%equal weight | 5-0.41 edge/pick |
| 0xad7f…d96cbacked Yes | 69c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe818…98f4backed Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee5…4b64backed Yes | 61c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x886b…73d1backed No | 65c | 30.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce14…cdf2backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -63%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbda…379fbacked Yes | 75c | 28.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52e4…7d32backed Yes | 53c | 28.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 69c | 27.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…cf0cbacked Yes | 47c | 27.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbdf…4981backed Yes | 68c | 26.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d4…c90ebacked Yes | 76c | 26.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -56%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…04e4backed Yes | 78c | 25.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d9…0e4cbacked No | 64c | 22.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd17…9bfbbacked No | 58c | 21.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…0164backed Yes | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…0839backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdde…c019backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x487d…465fbacked Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9378…7f24backed Yes | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c9…d3b7backed Yes | 72c | 17.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1add…bc6bbacked Yes | 65c | 17.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f7…761ebacked Yes | 73c | 15.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed No | 74c | 13.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f0…566ebacked No | 78c | 12.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on January 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 3°C on January 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 4°C on January 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 5°C on January 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on January 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C or higher on January 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.