Australian A League · resolved market
Will Melbourne Victory FC vs. Adelaide United FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4b80b14e30ee61911d2d7b227f6e3a1021dd53f1f13a2f207257cdd80b16bf6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,326
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,666
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,326 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5572…984ebacked Yes | 17c | 5,262$895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b0…8c4cbacked Yes | 25c | 4,800$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 77c | 4,309$3,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008.37 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 25c | 1,602$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.9 | 139 | 33.8%47 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae9…74acbacked No | 80c | 1,299$1,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed No | 78c | 586.82$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.91 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…eca0backed Yes | 22c | 440.76$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3c…e863backed Yes | 14c | 357$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 24c | 333$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.92 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 75c | 286.67$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.67 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07ec…ba9fbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 80c | 170$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Yes | 24c | 136$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68e0…a3a6backed No | 76c | 130$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed Yes | 24c | 124$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked No | 79c | 109.99$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 77c | 103.31$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc4…306fbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc53e…a45cbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 23c | 86.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a17…5524backed No | 77c | 77.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a23…97a7backed Yes | 23c | 69.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Yes | 24c | 66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 33cpaid | +91.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc49c…6dcabacked Yes | 24c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -45%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9840…cb31backed No | 76c | 46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 57cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc856…0aa5backed No | 76c | 44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa9…7097backed No | 76c | 41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b1…cac1backed No | 76c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42bb…2138backed No | 76c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa4…b6a4backed No | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x934a…9096backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 47cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x315a…b24cbacked No | 76c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x152c…3b50backed No | 76c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 71cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…6070backed No | 76c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60dc…9a3ebacked No | 76c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f0…327cbacked No | 76c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…47edbacked No | 76c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2c…38ccbacked No | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e48…c958backed No | 76c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 77c | 13.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.07 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Melbourne Victory FC vs. Adelaide United FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Adelaide United FC win on 2025-12-13?No won
- Will Melbourne Victory FC win on 2025-12-13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.