Australian A League · resolved market
Will Melbourne Victory FC win on 2025-12-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9b1d1ef9f936c4db71f9b0bb329fa9c73c4e2df4da32e052d47b2923ab274f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,136
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,843
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,136 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 20c | 7,045$1,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,422.48 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 33c | 2,304$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.41 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 42c | 2,159$911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,248.39 | 139 | 33.8%47 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 68c | 1,610$1,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.51 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 64c | 1,176$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.36 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 18c | 1,114$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.46 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Yes | 41c | 999.99$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 35cpaid | +111.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 49c | 744.99$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.97 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 42c | 677.13$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.99 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85e2…0980backed Yes | 68c | 550.72$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked No | 58c | 220$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.6 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Yes | 43c | 173$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.61 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed Yes | 43c | 150$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed Yes | 43c | 132$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.24 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Yes | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb327…0fccbacked Yes | 43c | 115.12$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.62 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedfd…1432backed Yes | 58c | 104.37$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.37 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe90c…0d37backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed Yes | 44c | 96$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.76 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.31per pick | 42cpaid | +103%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Yes | 44c | 92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0581…f89ebacked No | 63c | 77.62$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Yes | 43c | 76$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.32 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1376…8289backed Yes | 42c | 75.12$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8105…955abacked Yes | 42c | 66.48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9318…22b8backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 43c | 46.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb736…1946backed No | 57c | 45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e44…3cefbacked No | 57c | 42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…8f17backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb7…8745backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08a7…e161backed No | 57c | 38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb53c…c76ebacked Yes | 46c | 37.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +145.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6014…5a58backed No | 57c | 37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5992…40bfbacked Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x740b…1d47backed No | 59c | 34.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73c5…4997backed No | 57c | 34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd595…7893backed No | 57c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…abfebacked No | 59c | 30.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…bbb5backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84b5…a762backed Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2348…9d10backed No | 57c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ce3bbacked Yes | 69c | 28.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 57c | 28.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe11a…d47ebacked No | 57c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ab…b38dbacked No | 57c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62e6…f251backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5572…984ebacked Yes | 41c | 24.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…8137backed No | 57c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6d…d6bdbacked No | 57c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -59%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92bf…0297backed No | 57c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec7…7796backed No | 59c | 20.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f96…92e0backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…a8edbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Melbourne Victory FC win on 2025-12-13?this page
- Will Adelaide United FC win on 2025-12-13?No won
- Will Melbourne Victory FC vs. Adelaide United FC end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.