Australian A League · resolved market
Will Adelaide United FC win on 2025-12-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a8ab990f302b03a50ffc08a1dc3185dfb89f6b540f68050c42f7698617bf3f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,590
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,457
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,590 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5572…984ebacked Yes | 3c | 38,108$1,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,147.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 78c | 6,233$4,886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,347.02 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 35c | 5,710$1,992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,991.52 | 139 | 33.8%47 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 38c | 4,571$1,738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,738.14 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 66c | 4,276$2,823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,452.21 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 70c | 4,175$2,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,264.51 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Yes | 21c | 2,427$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…00f8backed No | 57c | 1,079$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc47f…94b4backed Yes | 35c | 571.43$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd371…4478backed No | 19c | 570.2$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +415.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 66c | 402.85$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.97 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed No | 74c | 359.64$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.27 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 68c | 300.89$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.09 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…964dbacked No | 8c | 300$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,150%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad1b…5da0backed Yes | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa72e…3db9backed Yes | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…eca0backed Yes | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 31c | 230.14$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.12 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc4…306fbacked Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92b…8186backed Yes | 34c | 197.27$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed Yes | 33c | 185$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.05 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…edd0backed Yes | 13c | 155.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 67c | 128.4$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae9…74acbacked No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Yes | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf08b…9a7dbacked Yes | 33c | 69.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…5d1ebacked Yes | 32c | 66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e20…ac93backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4970…21f6backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf672…c3c4backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Yes | 36c | 52.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 61c | 50.54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2382…4628backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b90…710fbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26fc…2286backed Yes | 33c | 49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -48%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed No | 67c | 49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00c0…4523backed No | 68c | 48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4241…ad76backed Yes | 24c | 46.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…bd74backed No | 67c | 39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…bd4bbacked No | 66c | 38.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda03…7f8cbacked No | 67c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 65cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa554…e53dbacked No | 68c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…47f8backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc94d…2b20backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92bf…0297backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4918…3db7backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e8…441fbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Adelaide United FC win on 2025-12-13?this page
- Will Melbourne Victory FC vs. Adelaide United FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Melbourne Victory FC win on 2025-12-13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.