Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4dff96cac0e6c19a9ffd4b1cab7367f4612d116702222cbf659f6c3276de6ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,456
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,550
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,456 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4337…8882backed Under | 49c | 5,915$2,898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,016.67 | 168 | 42.9%72 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4667…cab0backed Over | 51c | 5,097$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,599.58 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc40…89cfbacked Under | 50c | 1,512$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.81 | 360 | 41.4%149 W · 211 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Under | 38c | 1,296$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.53 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac2…e183backed Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 249 | 55.4%138 W · 111 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc947…f70cbacked Over | 74c | 934.61$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.58 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +176.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Over | 50c | 498.5$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.25 | 223 | 63.2%141 W · 82 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc44e…7111backed Over | 52c | 476.59$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.06 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Over | 60c | 437.8$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.08 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…07fdbacked Over | 14c | 170.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 243 | 49%119 W · 124 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x949e…20afbacked Over | 50c | 144.18$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.09 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 50c | 121$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Under | 63c | 98.12$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 204 | 48%98 W · 106 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf01a…cc6abacked Over | 51c | 87.83$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 44c | 87.03$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.74 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fb…f9d1backed Over | 50c | 48.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 162 | 40.7%66 W · 96 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…2561backed Over | 51c | 47.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 316 | 59.8%189 W · 127 L | +18.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…129dbacked Over | 51c | 45.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc845…a654backed Over | 50c | 40.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Over | 53c | 39.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Over | 62c | 38.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb63…7188backed Under | 38c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 52c | 29.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 273 | 57.1%156 W · 117 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Over | 51c | 26.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12ad…e057backed Over | 62c | 25.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Under | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 197 | 42.1%83 W · 114 L | -12.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…df0ebacked Over | 52c | 24.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x80fe…aaffbacked Over | 65c | 21.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc2…bf53backed Over | 50c | 21.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia PlayoffsTeam Falcons won
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Falcons - Game 1 WinnerTeam Falcons won
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Falcons - Game 2 WinnerTeam Falcons won
- Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5)Team Falcons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.