Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on January 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4e138c1e1c9f7a4f96a97e1fc8bbccb439af426503fcf26671cbe5d638a8fa1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,338
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,588
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,338 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 2c | 1,090$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 7c | 831.07$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.95 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 5c | 535.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4978…0169backed Yes | 71c | 419.97$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.83 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 12c | 393.03$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.82 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked No | 15c | 377.37$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.21 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bec…7e15backed No | 60c | 325$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 53c | 231$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.22 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 199.97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…1bbabacked No | 23c | 199.96$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 121 | 25.6%31 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c35…f1eebacked Yes | 74c | 193.49$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…e1d0backed Yes | 75c | 189.93$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.55 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | -10.2wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 62c | 183.37$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.42 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 57c | 180.73$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.32 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…b8e3backed Yes | 56c | 146.63$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.63 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 44c | 142.95$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.2 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 53c | 133.22$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.13 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa462…0fb2backed No | 24c | 127.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 119 | 20.2%24 W · 95 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b19…6b1cbacked No | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 23c | 97.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c8…f330backed Yes | 64c | 95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8740…70f4backed Yes | 67c | 92.15$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.11 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 40c | 90$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 49c | 82.01$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c45…7aa4backed Yes | 68c | 72.02$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f1…9c94backed Yes | 72c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23a9…64f3backed Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b29…f288backed No | 53c | 55.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcac0…a0b8backed Yes | 41c | 55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.65 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d65…2061backed No | 45c | 53.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 45c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5468…8a4abacked No | 54c | 47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 45c | 41.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8d…c149backed Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7288…42a3backed No | 37c | 39.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb03a…f703backed Yes | 70c | 39.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x501f…7debbacked Yes | 67c | 37.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391c…68d1backed No | 52c | 37.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61a3…9106backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc96…7201backed Yes | 49c | 34.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 34.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 40c | 33.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 32c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2f…2e37backed Yes | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 78cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…7988backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 45c | 29.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea3c…44aebacked Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 49c | 28.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb387…775cbacked Yes | 68c | 25.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf007…1829backed Yes | 63c | 23.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed Yes | 70c | 21.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x203f…3ddebacked Yes | 72c | 20.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c4b…50f8backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9fd…f242backed Yes | 54c | 19.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee53…7d97backed Yes | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 74cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4873…ac9cbacked No | 63c | 17.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa52e…8f85backed Yes | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe79f…6bf3backed Yes | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bce…a09bbacked Yes | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…6b31backed Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on January 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 36°F or higher on January 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 28-29°F on January 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on January 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on January 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.