Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on January 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x441ad43a883299293927ebb25fdad1359a35cf5e45c373d21ed376d5c9cfbad3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,020
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,656
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,020 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 6c | 1,432$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.31 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 21c | 594.19$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.58 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 7c | 575.76$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.77 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 9c | 555.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc301…c243backed Yes | 13c | 279.22$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 16c | 235.27$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa462…0fb2backed Yes | 12c | 227.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 119 | 20.2%24 W · 95 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd6…8577backed Yes | 37c | 200.27$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3744…3e65backed Yes | 8c | 186.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x602a…5ab7backed Yes | 24c | 170.15$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.03 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 17c | 159.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ee…7b23backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…fe0abacked Yes | 19c | 139.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf515…b264backed Yes | 12c | 137.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 22c | 130.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…b8e3backed No | 80c | 124.53$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…432fbacked No | 75c | 120$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 101.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec95…7332backed Yes | 14c | 98.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 92.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 90.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…014cbacked Yes | 17c | 87.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 22c | 83.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb856…8fb6backed Yes | 18c | 79.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…e1d0backed No | 74c | 74$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | -10.2wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…6b31backed Yes | 16c | 65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8a…9712backed Yes | 20c | 64.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bec…7e15backed No | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95cd…4f91backed Yes | 21c | 55.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…95d7backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 28c | 38.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 67c | 29.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…d85fbacked No | 80c | 23.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 75cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 74c | 20.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xffde…47cfbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7d…0639backed No | 61c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9236…da58backed No | 71c | 16.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on January 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 36°F or higher on January 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 28-29°F on January 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on January 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on January 19?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.