NHL · resolved market
Maple Leafs vs. Capitals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4f4103aaf8fce5013f969b7065cbf6358bbedd172cc0a226a3eb8a4e6ba82a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Capitalsof Maple Leafs, Capitals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $362,129
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $364,085
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $362,129 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 254 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff7a…4c4cbacked Maple Leafs | 42c | 116,629$48,984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48,984.17 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Capitals | 59c | 60,000$35,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,600 | 425 | 52.2%222 W · 203 L | +25.0wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Capitals | 58c | 47,326$27,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,876.93 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Capitals | 59c | 25,000$14,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,250 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Maple Leafs | 41c | 19,120$7,839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,839.3 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Maple Leafs | 42c | 11,792$4,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,952.64 | 283 | 53%150 W · 133 L | +16.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed Maple Leafs | 41c | 10,908$4,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,492.93 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | +8.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Capitals | 58c | 10,000$5,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,199.98 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Capitals | 58c | 7,570$4,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,179.29 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Capitals | 58c | 7,210$4,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,028.05 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf0…1e2abacked Maple Leafs | 42c | 7,000$2,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,940 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Maple Leafs | 1c | 5,452$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 745 | 0.7%5 W · 740 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -94.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…80aebacked Maple Leafs | 13c | 5,280$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.45 | 327 | 44%144 W · 183 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Maple Leafs | 42c | 5,238$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,200 | 603 | 37.5%226 W · 377 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Maple Leafs | 42c | 5,223$2,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,193.72 | 301 | 52.5%158 W · 143 L | +17.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce99…637ebacked Maple Leafs | 42c | 5,190$2,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,180 | 269 | 46.1%124 W · 145 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Capitals | 58c | 4,616$2,677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,938.58 | 329 | 46.8%154 W · 175 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Capitals | 59c | 4,576$2,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,876.27 | 332 | 43.7%145 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Maple Leafs | 12c | 4,270$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.36 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed Capitals | 58c | 4,194$2,433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,761.48 | 246 | 54.5%134 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08a4…5c3fbacked Capitals | 58c | 3,886$2,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,632.11 | 305 | 51.5%157 W · 148 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc350…3669backed Maple Leafs | 12c | 3,491$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.96 | 309 | 44.7%138 W · 171 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe948…ff23backed Capitals | 59c | 3,390$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,389.83 | 296 | 51.7%153 W · 143 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Capitals | 58c | 3,153$1,829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,324.26 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Capitals | 60c | 3,104$1,870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,234 | 584 | 67.5%394 W · 190 L | +93.1wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Capitals | 58c | 3,000$1,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260 | 866 | 49.9%432 W · 434 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Maple Leafs | 25c | 2,313$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.59 | 324 | 51.2%166 W · 158 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Capitals | 58c | 2,222$1,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$933.23 | 752 | 51.7%389 W · 363 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Capitals | 58c | 1,799$1,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.58 | 1,301 | 52.6%684 W · 617 L | +23.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb123…0a15backed Maple Leafs | 42c | 1,750$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Capitals | 59c | 1,720$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.2 | 793 | 50.1%397 W · 396 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70cf…f6cebacked Maple Leafs | 32c | 1,659$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e1…c872backed Capitals | 58c | 1,602$929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.86 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96bc…7fb4backed Maple Leafs | 42c | 1,600$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672 | 248 | 45.2%112 W · 136 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aba…b7c8backed Capitals | 59c | 1,500$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6a…f116backed Maple Leafs | 42c | 1,500$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cb…d096backed Maple Leafs | 13c | 1,486$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.4 | 387 | 38%147 W · 240 L | -13.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Maple Leafs | 24c | 1,417$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.38 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Capitals | 59c | 1,367$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.13 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Maple Leafs | 15c | 1,344$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.2 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -20.5wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9855…bf6ebacked Maple Leafs | 40c | 1,170$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Maple Leafs | 12c | 1,086$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.66 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93a2…5181backed Maple Leafs | 11c | 1,073$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x290f…7e47backed Capitals | 73c | 1,008$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.13 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2128…4c6dbacked Maple Leafs | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -9.6wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc480…0caabacked Maple Leafs | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Maple Leafs | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff9f…7c29backed Capitals | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 53cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4366…c73ebacked Maple Leafs | 41c | 999.99$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.99 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2838…fdd3backed Maple Leafs | 15c | 999.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…157bbacked Maple Leafs | 42c | 961.9$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.76 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x381e…3f00backed Capitals | 59c | 860$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.6 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Maple Leafs | 21c | 787.22$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.1 | 1,354 | 52.6%712 W · 642 L | +46.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…0566backed Maple Leafs | 25c | 764.93$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.89 | 950 | 49.1%466 W · 484 L | +12.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…f328backed Maple Leafs | 44c | 743.75$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.63 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca0b…51c0backed Maple Leafs | 42c | 730$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.6 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…e1b9backed Maple Leafs | 42c | 720$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.4 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d4…a077backed Maple Leafs | 41c | 708.98$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.68 | 250 | 45.2%113 W · 137 L | +13.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Capitals | 58c | 705.98$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.51 | 751 | 55.8%419 W · 332 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Maple Leafs | 41c | 700$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287 | 1,087 | 45.1%490 W · 597 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e01…aae8backed Capitals | 59c | 684.75$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.75 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ff…d6f9backed Maple Leafs | 42c | 684.21$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.37 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Capitals | 59c | 611.17$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.45 | 684 | 49.9%341 W · 343 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Capitals | 59c | 600$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246 | 318 | 48.1%153 W · 165 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Maple Leafs | 7c | 600$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 544 | 18%98 W · 446 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4fc…8af7backed Maple Leafs | 42c | 599.98$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.99 | 602 | 49.5%298 W · 304 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c2…5f79backed Capitals | 59c | 590$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.9 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x590b…7fd6backed Maple Leafs | 42c | 575.52$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.72 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9de9…ee25backed Maple Leafs | 26c | 544.02$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.68 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Capitals | 58c | 518$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.56 | 470 | 51.5%242 W · 228 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf819…d410backed Maple Leafs | 42c | 500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 209 | 51.7%108 W · 101 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc449…2239backed Capitals | 58c | 500$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf1…03aebacked Capitals | 59c | 482.8$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Capitals | 56c | 453.23$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.92 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca3f…8078backed Capitals | 58c | 447.43$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.58 | 622 | 49.4%307 W · 315 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Maple Leafs | 41c | 404.69$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.92 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Capitals | 58c | 401.66$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.03 | 352 | 45.2%159 W · 193 L | -19.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f74…558dbacked Maple Leafs | 42c | 395.24$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69d9…9881backed Capitals | 59c | 381.36$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.36 | 306 | 57.8%177 W · 129 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7f…3223backed Maple Leafs | 43c | 375.89$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Maple Leafs | 42c | 357.14$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 784 | 43.8%343 W · 441 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9de…5fb1backed Maple Leafs | 5c | 350$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacbe…85d4backed Capitals | 59c | 350$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.5 | 201 | 47.3%95 W · 106 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Maple Leafs | 26c | 349.21$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.17 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcef5…9f93backed Maple Leafs | 42c | 328.57$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Capitals | 58c | 313.97$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.51 | 749 | 51.8%388 W · 361 L | +18.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Capitals | 58c | 300$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Capitals | 58c | 300$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 388 | 57.2%222 W · 166 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49e2…018dbacked Capitals | 58c | 281.78$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.92 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Maple Leafs | 11c | 268.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 601 | 41.9%252 W · 349 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Capitals | 59c | 260.86$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.26 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Maple Leafs | 19c | 260$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.14 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Capitals | 58c | 260$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 309 | 52.4%162 W · 147 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8c…4bc2backed Capitals | 59c | 254.24$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.24 | 253 | 58.5%148 W · 105 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bdd…4816backed Maple Leafs | 41c | 252.62$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.57 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6344…ca5fbacked Maple Leafs | 41c | 252.28$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.46per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21a0…4259backed Maple Leafs | 41c | 251.06$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.93 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Maple Leafs | 42c | 250$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda8a…223cbacked Maple Leafs | 41c | 248.84$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.02 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…043abacked Maple Leafs | 41c | 246.91$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.23 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Maple Leafs vs. Capitalsthis page
- Maple Leafs vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5Under won
- Maple Leafs vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Capitals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.