Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5288ea7128f31fa67ee895ea2af0849081f70b493cf4788ed07ffcdc64db9bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,563
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,245
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,563 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 2c | 789.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 5c | 547.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 33c | 319.76$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.02 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 7c | 263.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 23c | 260.37$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.42 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 235.1$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.79 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 26c | 172.35$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.16 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 24c | 147.82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 8c | 140.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed0…25afbacked Yes | 63c | 123.12$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.12 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…a70fbacked Yes | 34c | 117.16$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.16 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 26c | 96.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.12 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…6bd8backed Yes | 66c | 90.37$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +5.6wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…a380backed No | 35c | 85.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 82.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.04 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 78.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.78 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 73c | 71.29$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 73c | 68.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.61 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 49c | 66.83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 69c | 64.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 42c | 59.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 66c | 51.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 50.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 54c | 47.64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x393e…b2f0backed No | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 34c | 43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 59c | 40.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67c1…8205backed Yes | 32c | 40.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 39.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 74c | 39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 27c | 37.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 58c | 34.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x01f2…c3debacked No | 45c | 34.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -18.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 67c | 33.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb722…f03abacked Yes | 62c | 32.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aec…6e19backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac91…5d29backed Yes | 52c | 28.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 73c | 28.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 65c | 26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 77c | 23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b09…68babacked Yes | 51c | 20.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…72c0backed No | 65c | 20.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -10.8wins | -0.14per pick | 63cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 73c | 19.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 76c | 19.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 74c | 16.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 73c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 75c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f01…4c3abacked Yes | 75c | 13.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.44 | 161 | 59%95 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on May 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.