NBA · resolved market
Bulls vs. Magic: O/U 239.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa56076ee3ae98596b42a7313910236b8b843185d8822008f18d0dcc396f82470
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,162
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,445
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,162 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 15,111$7,538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,537.87 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Under | 50c | 13,476$6,738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,737.97 | 596 | 53.4%318 W · 278 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Over | 50c | 8,719$4,316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,403 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x185c…fa2fbacked Over | 49c | 8,200$4,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,182 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…9120backed Under | 51c | 8,200$4,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,182 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -30%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 50c | 7,539$3,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,770 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd599…bf55backed Over | 48c | 7,000$3,362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,638 | 134 | 35.8%48 W · 86 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Over | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 477 | 48.8%233 W · 244 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 52c | 4,236$2,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,188.06 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9c…26d0backed Over | 50c | 3,850$1,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,925 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 49c | 1,838$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.13 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Over | 48c | 1,298$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.96 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 48c | 1,217$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.84 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 50c | 937$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.5 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dca…6bdcbacked Under | 52c | 900$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa93d…db7dbacked Over | 48c | 900$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Under | 53c | 700$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.77 | 428 | 45.1%193 W · 235 L | -15.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 51c | 629.4$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.99 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Over | 51c | 588.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.24 | 402 | 43.8%176 W · 226 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 48c | 583$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.16 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 50c | 543$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.5 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 49c | 499.99$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 49c | 440.99$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.9 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Under | 47c | 400$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 205 | 42.9%88 W · 117 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 375$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Over | 49c | 295.35$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.63 | 363 | 51.2%186 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under | 10c | 205$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 214 | 43.9%94 W · 120 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6611…17e7backed Under | 51c | 199.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Over | 51c | 196.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.88 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x068f…4594backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 50c | 159.96$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.4 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4556…2b35backed Under | 51c | 149.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15a3…718ebacked Under | 49c | 149.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.49 | 113 | 51.3%58 W · 55 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…129ebacked Over | 50c | 130$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 11c | 111.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 50c | 106$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Under | 51c | 59.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf247…e269backed Over | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 247 | 31.2%77 W · 170 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Over | 49c | 53.58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Under | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 166 | 69.9%116 W · 50 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c44…739abacked Under | 51c | 44.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa46d…59c4backed Over | 46c | 43.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.09 | 121 | 49.6%60 W · 61 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac1…a0f2backed Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x444e…31c1backed Over | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 188 | 52.7%99 W · 89 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b7…c02cbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 249 | 55%137 W · 112 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31ce…88cdbacked Over | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 245 | 52.7%129 W · 116 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96f4…8081backed Over | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Over | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 266 | 48.5%129 W · 137 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…d695backed Over | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…22a9backed Over | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 251 | 50.2%126 W · 125 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Over | 51c | 31.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 256 | 42.6%109 W · 147 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc08d…6a83backed Under | 51c | 30.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 217 | 56.7%123 W · 94 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b6…b02ebacked Under | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 223 | 42.2%94 W · 129 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked Over | 49c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 273 | 50.9%139 W · 134 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Over | 49c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 326 | 49.7%162 W · 164 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…b023backed Over | 49c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 272 | 51.1%139 W · 133 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed Over | 49c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 318 | 52.2%166 W · 152 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…ccd1backed Over | 48c | 23.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b5…d6f8backed Under | 49c | 21.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 273 | 59%161 W · 112 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa709…8d1dbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bulls vs. Magic: O/U 239.5this page
- Bulls vs. MagicMagic won
- Bulls vs. Magic: O/U 238.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Magic: O/U 240.5Over won
- Spread: Magic (-7.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Magic (-8.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Magic (-9.5)Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.