NBA · resolved market
Spread: Magic (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x663b7df1883c306aa8c403881cf4ecbe4a364d99a49cdda580ca4c60e08512fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bullsof Magic, Bulls
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $136,950
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $138,357
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $136,950 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x060e…2384backed Magic | 53c | 75,000$39,717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39,717.27 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Bulls | 47c | 20,646$9,703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,942.16 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bulls | 47c | 20,279$9,598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,680.52 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bulls | 47c | 19,024$8,955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,069.62 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Magic | 53c | 8,871$4,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,730.26 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Bulls | 47c | 7,602$3,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,002.01 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Bulls | 47c | 5,970$2,805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,164.03 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Magic | 54c | 3,333$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,799.82 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Bulls | 46c | 2,833$1,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,529.82 | 173 | 54.3%94 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Bulls | 46c | 2,500$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…50aabacked Bulls | 47c | 1,893$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,003.21 | 240 | 48.3%116 W · 124 L | -13.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Bulls | 48c | 1,770$843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$927.05 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Bulls | 47c | 1,406$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.18 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed Bulls | 47c | 1,362$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.86 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | +13.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…1b96backed Magic | 54c | 1,348$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728 | 240 | 51.3%123 W · 117 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Bulls | 47c | 1,006$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.18 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Bulls | 46c | 745.93$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.28 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Bulls | 47c | 734.96$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.07 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Bulls | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.53 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Magic | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Bulls | 46c | 343.9$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.17 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed Magic | 55c | 256.83$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.08 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2123…8d70backed Magic | 54c | 222.22$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 175 | 51.4%90 W · 85 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Magic | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Bulls | 47c | 153.1$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.14 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd88e…ef1bbacked Bulls | 47c | 146.95$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.39 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ba…f30dbacked Bulls | 49c | 130.61$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.21 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Magic | 50c | 123$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7497…1dc4backed Bulls | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Bulls | 46c | 119.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1c…c03abacked Bulls | 47c | 117.02$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.02 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…5a6ebacked Bulls | 47c | 117.02$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.02 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…129dbacked Bulls | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Magic | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1009…9ad0backed Bulls | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x897d…90c9backed Bulls | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 165 | 59.4%98 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6450…9547backed Bulls | 47c | 74.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 84 | 39.3%33 W · 51 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Magic | 51c | 70.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…3017backed Magic | 50c | 62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Magic | 33c | 58.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Magic | 52c | 56.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Bulls | 48c | 55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 624 | 50%312 W · 312 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9549…b936backed Bulls | 47c | 52.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 244 | 52.5%128 W · 116 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Magic | 53c | 52.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Bulls | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 174 | 44.3%77 W · 97 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd87b…946dbacked Bulls | 47c | 46.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Bulls | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19a7…3ec1backed Bulls | 46c | 39.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Bulls | 49c | 39.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 244 | 54.1%132 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8861…e19fbacked Magic | 51c | 39.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Magic | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1365…97dfbacked Magic | 54c | 31.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Bulls | 48c | 31.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 327 | 43.4%142 W · 185 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd95…52fbbacked Magic | 52c | 30.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 139 | 38.8%54 W · 85 L | -14.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9698…de01backed Bulls | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 267 | 57.3%153 W · 114 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffb2…3bb5backed Bulls | 69c | 29.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Bulls | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 482 | 55%265 W · 217 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5fa…6eb4backed Magic | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Magic (-8.5)this page
- Bulls vs. MagicMagic won
- Bulls vs. Magic: O/U 238.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Magic: O/U 239.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Magic: O/U 240.5Over won
- Spread: Magic (-7.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Magic (-9.5)Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.