NBA · resolved market
Spread: Magic (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43ac02a1b82d7b962395a42ef0bc7d20525e2955c3fbe81ce80fcc02e187fbe5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bullsof Magic, Bulls
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,189
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,093
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,189 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bulls | 42c | 10,494$4,403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,090.99 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Magic | 59c | 8,408$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 131 | 53.4%70 W · 61 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f16…0246backed Magic | 56c | 8,098$4,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,525 | 386 | 49.5%191 W · 195 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…0888backed Bulls | 46c | 2,755$1,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,478.09 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Bulls | 43c | 2,545$1,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,447.28 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Bulls | 45c | 1,349$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.49 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Magic | 58c | 1,065$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.86 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Bulls | 44c | 1,012$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.76 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Magic | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Bulls | 40c | 551.09$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.66 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Bulls | 45c | 400$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 563 | 48.5%273 W · 290 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Bulls | 42c | 377.39$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.45 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Bulls | 43c | 209.3$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.3 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d48…b9a1backed Magic | 57c | 190$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.3 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a7…2c03backed Magic | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 144 | 56.3%81 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Bulls | 43c | 135$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.95 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Bulls | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 266 | 51.1%136 W · 130 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Bulls | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Bulls | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.99 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x895d…4970backed Magic | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Bulls | 46c | 66.94$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd55…c9bfbacked Bulls | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Magic | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 199 | 57.8%115 W · 84 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd87b…946dbacked Bulls | 43c | 60.47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.47 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf22a…5eaabacked Magic | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…9498backed Bulls | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Bulls | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa19f…f745backed Bulls | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…2332backed Bulls | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 121 | 55.4%67 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Bulls | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Magic | 56c | 35.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 408 | 53.7%219 W · 189 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Magic | 57c | 35.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3698…7160backed Bulls | 46c | 34.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Magic | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 253 | 51%129 W · 124 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Bulls | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 217 | 56.7%123 W · 94 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Magic | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 372 | 53.5%199 W · 173 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…f12fbacked Magic | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…6349backed Magic | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d3…246cbacked Magic | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 143 | 46.9%67 W · 76 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…b051backed Magic | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Magic (-7.5)this page
- Bulls vs. MagicMagic won
- Bulls vs. Magic: O/U 238.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Magic: O/U 239.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Magic: O/U 240.5Over won
- Spread: Magic (-8.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Magic (-9.5)Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.