NBA · resolved market
Spread: Magic (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd64946a6704ff05ae22d6a24a4fae436c6d868d74b2ee9b741e405d2490ddf55
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bullsof Magic, Bulls
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,009
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,550
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,009 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Bulls | 52c | 24,575$12,782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,793.07 | 524 | 60.1%315 W · 209 L | +35.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Magic | 48c | 20,000$9,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,600 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Magic | 48c | 10,000$4,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,850 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bulls | 52c | 5,731$2,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,753 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Magic | 48c | 4,000$1,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,919.99 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Bulls | 51c | 3,750$1,913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,837.5 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Magic | 48c | 2,059$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.27 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Bulls | 52c | 1,200$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576 | 339 | 45.1%153 W · 186 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Bulls | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.39 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Bulls | 71c | 700$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203 | 289 | 29.4%85 W · 204 L | -13.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Magic | 29c | 600$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Magic | 27c | 570.04$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.61 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb116…940abacked Bulls | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Magic | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Bulls | 51c | 491$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.59 | 406 | 48%195 W · 211 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Magic | 45c | 472.8$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.86 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4403…4252backed Bulls | 51c | 449.99$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.5 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Bulls | 73c | 299.92$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.98 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Magic | 49c | 296$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.04 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bulls | 52c | 277$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.63 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffb2…3bb5backed Bulls | 72c | 270.13$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.63 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Magic | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Magic | 48c | 187.12$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.52 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Bulls | 73c | 113$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8c…ad4bbacked Magic | 27c | 113$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -6.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Magic | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Magic | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Magic | 45c | 94.16$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Magic | 50c | 56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Magic | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 930 | 36.5%339 W · 591 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…56dbbacked Bulls | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 378 | 48.9%185 W · 193 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Magic (-9.5)this page
- Bulls vs. MagicMagic won
- Bulls vs. Magic: O/U 238.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Magic: O/U 239.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Magic: O/U 240.5Over won
- Spread: Magic (-7.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Magic (-8.5)Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.