NFL · resolved market
Texans vs. Colts: O/U 44.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa594046856e049f12694de8478553b2174a6a139b2882e1e935cfcf845106505
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,864
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,149
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,864 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Under | 51c | 20,000$10,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,800 | 176 | 47.7%84 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Over | 49c | 12,000$5,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,880 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 51c | 9,989$5,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,894.83 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Over | 49c | 7,721$3,779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,778.97 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 49c | 7,500$3,675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,675 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Over | 49c | 3,333$1,633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,633.17 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 2,058$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987.95 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…f5b6backed Under | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.08 | 123 | 43.1%53 W · 70 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 48c | 912.99$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.23 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Under | 51c | 656$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.44 | 176 | 48.9%86 W · 90 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Under | 51c | 525.41$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.45 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Over | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 392 | 42.6%167 W · 225 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 51c | 499.99$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked Under | 52c | 416.66$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 194 | 59.3%115 W · 79 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…657fbacked Under | 52c | 416$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.68 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…6825backed Under | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | -12.5wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Over | 55c | 360$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 136 | 41.2%56 W · 80 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 51c | 258.61$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.72 | 242 | 43.4%105 W · 137 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 48c | 221.15$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.15 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 48c | 192.31$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.31 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed21…a2a1backed Under | 52c | 144.23$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.23 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 49c | 120.15$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.53 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacbe…85d4backed Over | 49c | 105$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.45 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f8…0b7fbacked Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 234 | 47.9%112 W · 122 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1f…0b36backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d1…ff0cbacked Under | 52c | 71.15$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.15 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Over | 48c | 62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +12.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…6574backed Under | 52c | 58.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…ccfabacked Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e4…24c2backed Under | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ca…6e9abacked Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2059…5203backed Over | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6d…3779backed Under | 52c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6878…bec2backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under | 45c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 205 | 55.6%114 W · 91 L | +15.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09ae…004ebacked Under | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…20a3backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3991…2a57backed Under | 49c | 28.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Under | 45c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +7.6wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +103%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Under | 45c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 169 | 57.4%97 W · 72 L | +15.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under | 45c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 163 | 60.1%98 W · 65 L | +16.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…c6d6backed Under | 45c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…b1dcbacked Under | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texans vs. Colts: O/U 44.5this page
- Spread: Colts (-3.5)Texans won
- Spread: Colts (-4.5)Texans won
- Texans vs. ColtsTexans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.