NFL · resolved market
Spread: Colts (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x936fc3fe7e2798f4c3c8e1090035fbfbea689ef7ad1dfe6df1e280bfbb9a4c5c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texansof Colts, Texans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,336
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,804
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,336 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3850…c4b4backed Colts | 44c | 11,636$5,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,127.27 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Texans | 54c | 7,177$3,907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,269.99 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Texans | 58c | 1,379$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.31 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56c6…f706backed Texans | 58c | 1,345$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.82 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Texans | 56c | 1,251$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.44 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0944…6771backed Texans | 54c | 1,246$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.3 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Colts | 44c | 1,082$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.04 | 200 | 39.5%79 W · 121 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Colts | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 392 | 42.6%167 W · 225 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed78…f62bbacked Texans | 55c | 600$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Colts | 42c | 508.66$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.57 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Colts | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 136 | 41.2%56 W · 80 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Texans | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 142 | 48.6%69 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x045d…d649backed Colts | 44c | 359.09$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 95 | 36.8%35 W · 60 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6941…efd5backed Texans | 57c | 351.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.14 | 132 | 53%70 W · 62 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf515…0805backed Texans | 59c | 341.39$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.39 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Colts | 45c | 322$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.9 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2000…df78backed Texans | 58c | 301.71$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.72 | 208 | 51%106 W · 102 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Texans | 55c | 272.73$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.73 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…a7efbacked Texans | 59c | 211.95$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.95 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a93…32a0backed Texans | 52c | 199.56$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.7 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Colts | 41c | 199.39$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.75 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -11.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Colts | 46c | 187.39$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.2 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…3e2bbacked Texans | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -4.6wins | -0.17per pick | 58cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…d648backed Texans | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6252…bcf4backed Texans | 58c | 172.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.37 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Colts | 49c | 155.69$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.17 | 320 | 50.9%163 W · 157 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Texans | 58c | 150$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Colts | 42c | 120$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 230 | 24.3%56 W · 174 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Colts | 42c | 116.36$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.87 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Texans | 58c | 116.36$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.87 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -6.1wins | -0.18per pick | 59cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x68f6…7742backed Texans | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa221…5b1fbacked Texans | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18de…0b64backed Texans | 58c | 92$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +5.4wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Colts | 43c | 89.13$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.33 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68df…4815backed Texans | 57c | 83.49$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 181 | 56.9%103 W · 78 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf275…7050backed Texans | 54c | 83.27$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.27 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe081…97efbacked Colts | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f79…c16cbacked Texans | 58c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked Texans | 58c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ab…f5c1backed Texans | 58c | 74.97$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05af…8f0fbacked Colts | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Texans | 51c | 62$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Colts | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 234 | 47.9%112 W · 122 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Colts | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 177 | 41.8%74 W · 103 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f9…2aa8backed Colts | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 290 | 59.7%173 W · 117 L | +14.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb3…05e5backed Colts | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…0f0ebacked Texans | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…3702backed Colts | 42c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Colts | 46c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 205 | 55.6%114 W · 91 L | +15.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9549…b936backed Texans | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Colts | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Texans | 54c | 29.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Texans | 50c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 135 | 60%81 W · 54 L | +14.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3991…2a57backed Colts | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb376…f6a0backed Colts | 44c | 27.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Colts | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +7.6wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +103%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Colts | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 169 | 57.4%97 W · 72 L | +15.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…c6d6backed Colts | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…8a3ebacked Texans | 56c | 20.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab3a…b091backed Texans | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Colts (-4.5)this page
- Spread: Colts (-3.5)Texans won
- Texans vs. ColtsTexans won
- Texans vs. Colts: O/U 44.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.