TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Spread: Colts (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Texansof Colts, Texans
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$415,709
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$439,031

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $415,709 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 150 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1496…a429backed Texans53c203,000$107,976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95,024.6427454.7%150 W · 124 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Colts47c146,163$68,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68,256.486547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Colts48c80,003$38,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,301.4531240.7%127 W · 185 L-22.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Texans54c29,432$15,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,433.837255.6%40 W · 32 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Colts46c29,114$13,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,301.417454.6%95 W · 79 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8058…d023backed Colts47c22,415$10,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,514.863268.8%22 W · 10 L+5.0wins+0.16per pick53cpaid+27.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Texans51c19,633$10,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,620.1347348.4%229 W · 244 L+1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Texans53c15,607$8,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,335.5116051.9%83 W · 77 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb744…5210backed Texans53c9,473$5,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,452.2717041.8%71 W · 99 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Texans54c9,259$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,259.2613142%55 W · 76 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a38…8fb5backed Texans54c9,259$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,259.2614252.1%74 W · 68 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Colts2c8,720$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.668446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4335…fc2fbacked Texans54c8,000$4,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,68011168.5%76 W · 35 L+18.5wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+34.3%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Colts46c7,118$3,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,304.1835848.6%174 W · 184 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Texans54c6,000$3,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,76051352.2%268 W · 245 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Colts47c5,319$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50018650%93 W · 93 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Texans54c5,000$2,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,30026547.2%125 W · 140 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa613…d494backed Colts46c4,633$2,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,131.368856.8%50 W · 38 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked Texans53c4,500$2,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,094.9915555.5%86 W · 69 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Colts45c4,169$1,876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,876.241,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Texans54c2,994$1,617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,377.4450242.4%213 W · 289 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Colts46c2,802$1,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,288.7722450%112 W · 112 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Colts46c2,500$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,15019240.1%77 W · 115 L-16.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-21.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb177…1914backed Colts47c2,172$1,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0213740.5%15 W · 22 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-18.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Colts47c2,100$987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$986.9828447.5%135 W · 149 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1bc…9dc9backed Colts47c2,087$981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9815139.2%20 W · 31 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1388…339abacked Texans55c2,000$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90010142.6%43 W · 58 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Texans50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00017648.9%86 W · 90 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d16…d24dbacked Texans53c1,576$835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$740.847951.9%41 W · 38 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Texans54c1,389$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$638.8912550.4%63 W · 62 L+8.4wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f8e…b232backed Texans55c1,383$754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$628.464641.3%19 W · 27 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x631e…f0acbacked Colts47c1,251$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.8wins-0.40per pick54cpaid-73.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x201c…58bfbacked Texans54c1,170$632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.27464.9%48 W · 26 L+9.8wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+28.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x57b9…e9b4backed Texans54c1,111$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511.1110547.6%50 W · 55 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x09f0…1e82backed Texans54c1,000$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4602454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+72.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc17f…50aabacked Colts47c954.54$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.6311254.5%61 W · 51 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Colts47c922$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.341,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0585…5fa1backed Texans54c886.11$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.612259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+21.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Colts2c870.83$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1735648%171 W · 185 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Texans54c868.82$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.9665048.3%314 W · 336 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8d7…c17bbacked Texans54c825$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.511759.8%70 W · 47 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc7bf…b567backed Texans53c754.72$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.7212039.2%47 W · 73 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b5a…bb9bbacked Colts47c754.72$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.724143.9%18 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Colts46c750$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34514154.6%77 W · 64 L+0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed Texans54c750$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34518744.9%84 W · 103 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Colts45c749.99$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.4956852.3%297 W · 271 L+26.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ef8…8712backed Texans55c727.27$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.272556%14 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Colts3c534.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9164747.3%306 W · 341 L+42.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+56.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4c03…f8bebacked Texans54c434.78$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20019459.3%115 W · 79 L+15.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+15.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Texans54c400$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18459453.7%319 W · 275 L+24.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Colts46c400$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18424243.4%105 W · 137 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked Colts46c400$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18431540.6%128 W · 187 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb03c…7db3backed Texans54c375.48$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.721866.7%12 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8d3…02e4backed Texans54c370.37$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.371631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-43.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1375…4c69backed Texans54c370.37$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.373363.6%21 W · 12 L+4.8wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+38.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf629…bda0backed Texans55c363.64$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.647549.3%37 W · 38 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x50bb…9aa6backed Texans54c350$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.755246.2%24 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc4d…f0b8backed Texans53c300$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14113448.5%65 W · 69 L-9.4wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-12.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8bf3…6077backed Colts49c300$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1475939%23 W · 36 L-6.1wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-24.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Colts47c299.22$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.6423024.3%56 W · 174 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-28.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x504f…3ddcbacked Texans54c277.78$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.7811547%54 W · 61 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c0c…6825backed Texans54c277.78$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.7810537.1%39 W · 66 L-12.5wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-28.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x205f…0189backed Texans54c255.64$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.646267.7%42 W · 20 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+13.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Texans69c254.74$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.1428151.6%145 W · 136 L+20.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3214…63d6backed Texans54c231.48$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.488736.8%32 W · 55 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf48d…fe48backed Colts46c220$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.214949%73 W · 76 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x85c2…9730backed Texans54c218.52$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.529651%49 W · 47 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1ae7…cf61backed Texans55c218.18$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.184860.4%29 W · 19 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xabdf…3cbcbacked Colts46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005444.4%24 W · 30 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3fbc…9cf6backed Colts46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007550.7%38 W · 37 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbb6…25eabacked Colts47c217.02$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1023847.4%18 W · 20 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb84d…f5ffbacked Texans55c212.13$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.461050%5 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe13e…c564backed Colts45c209.09$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.092339.1%9 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+37.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d4e…18debacked Texans54c200$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9211752.1%61 W · 56 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Colts46c200$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9226648.9%130 W · 136 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a8…1b66backed Colts47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945954.2%32 W · 27 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd94…0b01backed Texans50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10016139.1%63 W · 98 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8059…c043backed Colts46c197.87$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9213347.4%63 W · 70 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58a0…2b5bbacked Texans51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.087034.3%24 W · 46 L-7.6wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-26.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4977…8fd6backed Texans51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.084959.2%29 W · 20 L+6.6wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+24.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Texans54c193$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.7877052.7%406 W · 364 L+24.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Texans54c190$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.455345%249 W · 304 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x183a…d514backed Texans53c188.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.6814355.2%79 W · 64 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9e67…8831backed Texans54c187.57$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.28966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+27.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Texans54c185.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.1922349.8%111 W · 112 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e16…16d4backed Texans54c185.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.191338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe832…7abbbacked Texans54c185.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.194257.1%24 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d5c…b756backed Texans54c183.52$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.421172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick59cpaid+24.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4c5…378abacked Texans54c183.5$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.51361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+49%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa810…854dbacked Texans55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.821070%7 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+30.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf133…928dbacked Texans55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.822759.3%16 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+29.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa14e…f856backed Texans55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.826959.4%41 W · 28 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4938…02a1backed Texans55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.82425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-54.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6941…efd5backed Texans55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.8213253%70 W · 62 L-0.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb376…f6a0backed Colts46c173.88$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$806647%31 W · 35 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf04c…bdf3backed Texans55c170$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Colts45c169.99$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.520542%86 W · 119 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+35.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x89c1…7380backed Texans54c150.15$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.071030%3 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick49cpaid-53.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb89…46f1backed Texans54c150$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694542.2%19 W · 26 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7555…ce17backed Texans54c111.11$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.119348.4%45 W · 48 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.