Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa596fd64681988516f9be84b5ad81ba836ff9be3bd8e60137d346a20187a5d89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,279
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,662
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,279 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd564…58d0backed Yes | 68c | 953.94$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.51 | 180 | 30.6%55 W · 125 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 27c | 949.78$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.31 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 14c | 719.58$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.26 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed Yes | 48c | 630.18$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.83 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 455.5$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.37 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 409.87$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.43 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 15c | 393.27$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.36 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 6c | 353.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed No | 32c | 329.68$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.63 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x349d…155cbacked Yes | 11c | 244.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 16c | 219.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed No | 37c | 202.55$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.89 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 7c | 202.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…6673backed No | 61c | 187.51$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.7 | 150 | 39.3%59 W · 91 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 39c | 157.71$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.33 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 13c | 152.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 14c | 150.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…0f04backed Yes | 70c | 138.57$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…9f4dbacked Yes | 9c | 121.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 230 | 7.8%18 W · 212 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 15c | 116.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 14c | 97.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 12c | 94.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…f6bfbacked No | 28c | 92.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.82 | 76 | 82.9%63 W · 13 L | +27.3wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 30c | 86.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.6 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd7…4a8fbacked Yes | 69c | 55.92$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 22c | 49.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe13a…f8cbbacked No | 71c | 48.1$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 69c | 45.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3556…d33ebacked Yes | 30c | 41.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7437…941bbacked No | 32c | 38.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 73c | 29.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 68c | 29.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcb…e7dabacked Yes | 71c | 26.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb30…8a4cbacked Yes | 71c | 26.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 39c | 25.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0603…8f62backed Yes | 65c | 22.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 78c | 21.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 63c | 20.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 78c | 18.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 78c | 16.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked No | 69c | 16.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 199 | 70.4%140 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2598…17dfbacked No | 77c | 14.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on April 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.