Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on April 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb91cefeb3f31db08c5642f2be0ce2d178c94454a381b184e9a93cc94a29ecd5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,110
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,890
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,110 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 3c | 661.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd564…58d0backed Yes | 39c | 621.76$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.95 | 180 | 30.6%55 W · 125 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a8…d879backed Yes | 36c | 392.93$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.02 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 5c | 247.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 241.32$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 34c | 201.66$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.78 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 7c | 199.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 198.7$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.89 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 25c | 193.54$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.82 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed Yes | 46c | 178.01$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.96 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 170.2$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.3 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 69c | 152.65$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.05 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bac…4e7ebacked Yes | 37c | 132.28$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.16 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 8c | 130$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 19c | 123.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 70c | 121.29$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…6673backed Yes | 42c | 118.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.36 | 150 | 39.3%59 W · 91 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2f…a13cbacked No | 78c | 106.15$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 59 | 81.4%48 W · 11 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 96.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 45c | 94.54$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.93 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0005…d5fdbacked Yes | 30c | 91.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 91.59$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.23 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d8…88b4backed Yes | 56c | 85.94$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.78 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 28c | 84.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 37c | 81.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 46c | 65.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.54 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 22c | 63.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…51f6backed Yes | 31c | 62.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…54c9backed No | 62c | 61.86$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…43a8backed Yes | 31c | 50.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 123 | 17.9%22 W · 101 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f9e…6d32backed Yes | 28c | 50.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 28c | 50.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 56c | 48.62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 71c | 47.95$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98dc…e3f0backed No | 75c | 45.53$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x712d…1d71backed Yes | 45c | 36.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 61c | 36.84$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 55c | 36.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed No | 56c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf25…4f10backed Yes | 33c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 73c | 31.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 72c | 30.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62e2…1f89backed No | 47c | 30.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 53c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 37c | 27.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 25.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 51c | 25.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec4d…087ebacked Yes | 46c | 24.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked No | 54c | 24.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…6b01backed Yes | 48c | 23.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…4883backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 64c | 19.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 74c | 19.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked No | 77c | 14.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on April 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on April 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.