Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x617b0918439fa9ee4036508099f0e918cc713fdf8abea41f12eeb3636ab19913
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,370
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,340
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,370 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd564…58d0backed Yes | 51c | 1,168$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.25 | 180 | 30.6%55 W · 125 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 55c | 948.22$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.97 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a8…d879backed Yes | 53c | 716.88$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.33 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed Yes | 58c | 643.83$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.45 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 76c | 586.44$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.92 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 39c | 512.39$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.85 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 25c | 296.01$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.94 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked No | 58c | 287.45$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.22 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 31c | 281.57$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.72 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 258.57$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.91 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 79c | 248.78$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.35 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 23c | 245.41$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.07 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…6673backed Yes | 78c | 212.75$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.65 | 150 | 39.3%59 W · 91 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 42c | 209.34$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.61 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 13c | 195.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 27c | 180.45$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.82 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf25…4f10backed Yes | 40c | 160.27$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.87 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked No | 69c | 147.56$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.55 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 120.08$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.41 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 23c | 119.56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.24 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…409cbacked Yes | 31c | 117.65$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.65 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +394.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 27c | 111.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.49 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 72c | 105.11$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.74 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 100.54$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 23c | 99.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.02 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 93.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.79 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 50c | 90.26$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.07 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd1…d384backed Yes | 13c | 89.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.99 | 148 | 6.8%10 W · 138 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 63c | 86.48$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.38 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d8…88b4backed Yes | 33c | 81.17$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.38 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9315…16c9backed Yes | 77c | 77.42$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed Yes | 30c | 74.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.23 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc50…2af3backed No | 71c | 63.51$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.39 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 28c | 62.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…6fe7backed Yes | 22c | 60.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.07 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9765…242ebacked Yes | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd0…0e22backed No | 79c | 60$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd9…ad53backed No | 55c | 59.8$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 26c | 56.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.59 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f9e…6d32backed Yes | 25c | 55.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.88 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 50c | 54.96$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3827…5455backed Yes | 35c | 46.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.39 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 35c | 46.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.39 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef6d…b0cdbacked No | 77c | 43.03$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.09 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 42.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 71c | 41.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd333…53f9backed Yes | 32c | 41.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.18 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 68c | 40.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 67c | 40.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 28c | 39.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.54 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x712d…1d71backed Yes | 39c | 37.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ad…1fcebacked Yes | 33c | 36.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 60c | 36.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 76c | 31.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2807…27d5backed Yes | 33c | 31.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 64c | 30.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 62c | 29.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 34c | 29.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 67c | 29.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4475…b483backed Yes | 35c | 28.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…1450backed No | 76c | 28.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -21.9wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd7…4a8fbacked Yes | 67c | 26.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe78f…7548backed Yes | 76c | 22.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48fd…aca7backed No | 68c | 21.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc167…b080backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd8…4ed3backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcb…e7dabacked Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 74c | 18.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 74c | 18.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 73c | 14.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on April 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.