Serie A · resolved market
Spread: Juventus FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5da3ae9160ade40c6cae7acb9fd1f1fe517900f49811862937bbdb50a73e2d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atalanta BCof Juventus FC, Atalanta BC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,840
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,954
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,840 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc699…7961backed Juventus FC | 22c | 4,423$953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$952.93 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Atalanta BC | 80c | 3,620$2,883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.72 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b2…2171backed Atalanta BC | 78c | 2,000$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Juventus FC | 25c | 453.63$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.41 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Juventus FC | 13c | 375.61$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.16 | 411 | 44.3%182 W · 229 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x772f…a69fbacked Juventus FC | 21c | 291.5$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b0f…c7e8backed Juventus FC | 21c | 197.6$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Atalanta BC | 80c | 193.1$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.62 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Atalanta BC | 80c | 193.1$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.62 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Atalanta BC | 80c | 193.1$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.62 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Atalanta BC | 80c | 187.3$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.46 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Atalanta BC | 80c | 187.3$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.46 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1aaa…0c04backed Juventus FC | 21c | 176.91$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Atalanta BC | 79c | 133.87$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Atalanta BC | 80c | 123.5$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…86dbbacked Atalanta BC | 80c | 123.5$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Atalanta BC | 80c | 123.5$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc338…974ebacked Juventus FC | 21c | 117.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Juventus FC | 19c | 83.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Juventus FC | 20c | 79.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 491 | 37.5%184 W · 307 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Atalanta BC | 79c | 78.19$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8205…5067backed Juventus FC | 21c | 68.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -5.7wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Atalanta BC | 80c | 64.39$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 173 | 54.3%94 W · 79 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Juventus FC | 19c | 63.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 162 | 19.1%31 W · 131 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54a6…7401backed Atalanta BC | 79c | 56.09$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cc…28a0backed Atalanta BC | 76c | 38.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed Atalanta BC | 80c | 30.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033b…5e3fbacked Atalanta BC | 80c | 16.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Atalanta BC | 80c | 16.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.24 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Juventus FC (-1.5)this page
- Atalanta BC vs. Juventus FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Atalanta BC vs. Juventus FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Atalanta BC vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Atalanta BC vs. Juventus FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Atalanta BC vs. Juventus FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Atalanta BC (-1.5)Juventus FC won
- Spread: Juventus FC (-2.5)Atalanta BC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.