Fifa International · resolved market
Cabo Verde vs. Serbia: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5ef3f2dc227ce6a5183295c983dab22f070dbbca1e112e4f6d33d15aac00ee0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,973
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,008
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,973 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 24c | 2,308$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.85 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8b…e3c9backed Over | 71c | 1,408$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.45 | 107 | 56.1%60 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 71c | 1,262$891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.51 | 254 | 55.9%142 W · 112 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 28c | 1,239$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.99 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Under | 25c | 773$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.06 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 27c | 727.44$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.13 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa4…8968backed Over | 79c | 630.38$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.38 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e2…d472backed Under | 38c | 582.8$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.02 | 137 | 36.5%50 W · 87 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Over | 72c | 527.78$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.78 | 204 | 47.5%97 W · 107 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4495…e6d7backed Over | 70c | 407.21$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.16 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7b…eac6backed Over | 76c | 363.57$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.26 | 174 | 59.8%104 W · 70 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Under | 31c | 345.25$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.22 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.12 | 551 | 53%292 W · 259 L | +11.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 11c | 210.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 1,941 | 35.5%690 W · 1,251 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…47a4backed Over | 67c | 163.41$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.93 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…5f4fbacked Over | 73c | 153$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.31 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6134…c8ccbacked Over | 71c | 140.7$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 28c | 118.88$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 1,560 | 43.8%684 W · 876 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 72c | 116.67$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 78 | 64.1%50 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Under | 20c | 110$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 172 | 17.4%30 W · 142 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9836…5765backed Under | 35c | 96.59$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 21c | 88.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Under | 33c | 73.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 384 | 39.8%153 W · 231 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 71c | 65.66$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 631 | 51.5%325 W · 306 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf94c…8a42backed Under | 32c | 63.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…f041backed Over | 70c | 58.57$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 72c | 53.46$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 28c | 49.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 203 | 30.5%62 W · 141 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 27c | 46.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 831 | 53.3%443 W · 388 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…3c59backed Over | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 165 | 47.9%79 W · 86 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb0…dbc2backed Over | 68c | 44.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 27c | 40.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 1,873 | 48.4%906 W · 967 L | +14.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 71c | 40.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 2,819 | 44.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L | -36.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 73c | 39.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 935 | 42.2%395 W · 540 L | -27.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Over | 71c | 21.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 146 | 47.3%69 W · 77 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Over | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 219 | 55.3%121 W · 98 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4633…48f1backed Over | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cabo Verde vs. Serbia: O/U 1.5this page
- Cabo Verde vs. Serbia: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Cabo Verde vs. Serbia: O/U 0.5Over won
- Cabo Verde vs. Serbia: O/U 2.5Over won
- Cabo Verde vs. Serbia: O/U 3.5Under won
- Cabo Verde vs. Serbia: O/U 4.5Under won
- Cabo Verde vs. Serbia: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5)Cabo Verde won
- Spread: Cabo Verde (-2.5)Cabo Verde won
- Spread: Serbia (-1.5)Cabo Verde won
- Spread: Serbia (-2.5)Cabo Verde won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.