NHL · resolved market
Avalanche vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5f7694cc8f09ac391378fe6acc5f9a7bdfc0dbe7c9a889ae89669db1d80db14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,449
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,171
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,449 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x03e8…1697backed Over | 55c | 28,536$15,562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,562.26 | 670 | 51%342 W · 328 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Under | 46c | 7,609$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,108.7 | 168 | 43.5%73 W · 95 L | -14.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Under | 45c | 6,517$2,933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,584.32 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3704…0e84backed Under | 48c | 4,498$2,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,360.93 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44d6…9858backed Under | 45c | 4,000$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,200 | 291 | 46.7%136 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Over | 53c | 3,546$1,881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,881.37 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 45c | 2,210$995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,215.5 | 388 | 44.6%173 W · 215 L | -17.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked Under | 46c | 1,854$853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,001.42 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd3…394cbacked Under | 46c | 1,304$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.35 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Under | 45c | 1,111$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.11 | 358 | 29.3%105 W · 253 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69ff…0d1dbacked Under | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 271 | 50.2%136 W · 135 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 55c | 962.22$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.21 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 936.13$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Under | 45c | 666.66$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.66 | 218 | 49.5%108 W · 110 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…85d0backed Under | 48c | 571.63$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.25 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 45c | 523.57$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.14 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e05…1b97backed Over | 52c | 492.31$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -6.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Under | 46c | 397.47$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.83 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…25eabacked Under | 48c | 354.4$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.4 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e49…fb01backed Over | 57c | 352.9$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 46c | 326.2$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.07 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 49c | 316.02$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.07 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 44c | 278.35$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.89 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…d142backed Under | 45c | 250$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.5 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 49c | 239.16$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.91 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd1…7511backed Over | 56c | 232.14$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 60c | 229.25$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.37 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Over | 50c | 200.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.97 | 119 | 33.6%40 W · 79 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4cac…1695backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8709…7d3dbacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 56c | 142.42$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.66 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 45c | 133.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.33 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…2767backed Over | 55c | 130$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…4dd4backed Under | 44c | 122.92$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.74 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -38%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x40a2…19c9backed Under | 45c | 122.43$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.34 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 55c | 113.46$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.86 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 59c | 108.66$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.14 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 261 | 36%94 W · 167 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 52c | 93$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5562…3b41backed Over | 56c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 54c | 67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93e3…e590backed Under | 56c | 56.21$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 45c | 55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 432 | 50.9%220 W · 212 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x768a…5e8abacked Under | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 60cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb099…aae2backed Over | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 43c | 45.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6f…f414backed Over | 51c | 42.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce7…7cfabacked Under | 46c | 42.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc046…f138backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 103 | 55.3%57 W · 46 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c7…1173backed Over | 55c | 36.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 41c | 35.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa2…9378backed Under | 49c | 32.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 47c | 30.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 607 | 41%249 W · 358 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 51c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Under | 44c | 27.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 393 | 44.8%176 W · 217 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd860…6bd7backed Over | 55c | 27.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 46c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6436…aa37backed Over | 46c | 25.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 123 | 35.8%44 W · 79 L | -14.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 45c | 25.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…e779backed Under | 61c | 24.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Under | 46c | 24.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51bb…a919backed Under | 45c | 22.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7171…81f7backed Over | 56c | 22.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 276 | 52.2%144 W · 132 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…7593backed Under | 56c | 20.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -5.4wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -38%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc3…1e73backed Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc34…a9c1backed Under | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Avalanche vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5this page
- Avalanche vs. DucksAvalanche won
- Avalanche vs. Ducks: O/U 5.5Over won
- Avalanche vs. Ducks: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)Avalanche won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.