NHL · resolved market
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b05328a17c0544eb433d0ee2d5fedc3638fd2c714ebcfcccda829f490f029f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Avalancheof Avalanche, Ducks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,708
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,648
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,708 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xada5…db70backed Avalanche | 38c | 8,659$3,284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,375.2 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Ducks | 62c | 3,271$2,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,028.14 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Ducks | 62c | 2,349$1,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,456.48 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Avalanche | 38c | 1,596$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990.11 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Ducks | 62c | 1,129$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Ducks | 62c | 847$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.14 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Ducks | 63c | 810.77$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.79 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Avalanche | 36c | 470.97$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.5 | 317 | 53.3%169 W · 148 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Ducks | 23c | 400$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 273 | 34.4%94 W · 179 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Avalanche | 77c | 398.77$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.04 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…94e9backed Ducks | 62c | 302.8$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.74 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Ducks | 62c | 255.39$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.1 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Ducks | 62c | 250$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Ducks | 62c | 204$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.48 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…a569backed Ducks | 64c | 187.14$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 226 | 55.8%126 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Avalanche | 36c | 180.75$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.08 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Ducks | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 252 | 58.3%147 W · 105 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…6573backed Avalanche | 37c | 150$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 210 | 42.4%89 W · 121 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Ducks | 63c | 126.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Ducks | 62c | 121$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.02 | 223 | 52.9%118 W · 105 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ceb…b516backed Ducks | 63c | 111.11$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…fcc3backed Ducks | 65c | 107.69$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Ducks | 65c | 104.62$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 215 | 60.9%131 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Avalanche | 36c | 84.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.89 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Ducks | 64c | 83$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.91 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Ducks | 65c | 78.46$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Avalanche | 48c | 75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.65 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Ducks | 65c | 60.77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.29 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Ducks | 63c | 56.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 381 | 47.2%180 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5467…ffffbacked Avalanche | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -7.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Ducks | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaed…37d5backed Avalanche | 37c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Ducks | 65c | 32.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Ducks | 63c | 25.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 336 | 60.7%204 W · 132 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Ducks | 64c | 21.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd6…16abbacked Ducks | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 308 | 59.4%183 W · 125 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Ducks | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)this page
- Avalanche vs. DucksAvalanche won
- Avalanche vs. Ducks: O/U 5.5Over won
- Avalanche vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5Under won
- Avalanche vs. Ducks: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.